Yann Quelenn
Swissquote Bank Ltd
Since the 2008 crisis, unemployment rate is declining and the data that will be released today will approach 5%. The metric is expected to print lower at 5.1% versus 5.2% a month earlier.
The jobless rate is then declining but the proportion of unemployed person having higher education is growing. Yet, the ruble collapse in 2014 has created strong difficulties for companies to hire those skilled workers. On top of that it is clear that there are now more people with higher education than 10 years ago. As a result the proportion is naturally growing.
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Meanwhile, real disposable income is falling for the 4th consecutive month (-0.4% in June). On the other hand, retail sales have grown 1.1% y/y in June after the positive increase of 0.1% y/y in May. However, that was at least three years that the annualized retail sales growth was negative. Inflation have increased by 4.4% y/y in June. It is the highest rate since February.
The Russia key rate has been lowered at 9%. The differential with inflation is still important and we should see the CBR tightening its monetary policy at a slow pace as growth remains weak. The last GDP data, the Q1 has shown a positive print, even though weak, at 0.5%.
We then believe that the ruble is set to appreciate but the appreciation should remain limited due to the CBR intervention. We target 56 before year-end.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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