Risk appetite returns on multiple positive headlines, Hawkish BoJ thus far ignored

General trend and developments

- Kospi led Asia again, up as much as 3.07 (Hynix +5.8%) amid reports South Korea’s National Pension Service (NPS) may purchase more domestic equities.

- General positivity for risk assets overall with Nasdaq FUTs +1.1% and BTC also +4% to 106K on China trade tension reduction and potential of US govt shutdown ending soon (see below) and Indonesia’s bourse set fresh record high (Indonesia Oct Consumer Confidence also well up to 121]. Spot gold +1.3% to nearly 4,054/oz and Copper +1.8% at $5.0455/lb.

China trade-related news: China confirms to relax multiple bans on exports of materials and components and also some imports from the US:

- China suspends ban on US-bound shipments of dual-use goods related to gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials for a year.

- China implemented measures to exempt Nexperia chips for civilian use with the head of VW China confirming carmakers are now receiving chip deliveries following the supply halt.

- China also continued to confirm resuming various US exports, including soybeans from at least three companies as well US logs (on top of earlier announcements to relax rare earth restrictions, wheat and grains and a further one-year extension on export controls for over 16 US companies).

- China halts special port fees for US vessels for one year.

- China October CPI saw its largest monthly increase since January, reversing the prior month’s decline. However, PPI prices again came in at worse than -2%. [Note that Chinese food prices are NOT recipients of China govt trade-in and other stimulus policies, and again fell sharply (nearly -3%) on an annualized basis].

US Govt shutdown

- At over 40 days the current US government shutdown extended its record as the longest in history, further delaying key data releases including CPI, PPI and Jobs among others, which may lead to the US Fed not feeling comfortable in cutting rates at its next meeting due to the ensuing data “fog”.

- However, the record shutdown may end this week as eight Senates Democrats voted with Republicans, 60-40, to back a GOP bill to end the shutdown. The Senate will work on the bill on Monday to pass for the House this week for (expected) passage.

Further news

- 91% of the S&P500 has already reported Q3 earnings (** Note: US behemoth Nvidia – with a $5T market cap briefly last week -to report Q3 on Nov 19th).

- Somewhat hawkish BOJ Minutes from the Oct 30th rate decision to hold for a 6th straight pause saw some members comment that the BOJ needs to raise sooner than later to avoid falling behind the curve and being forced to hike rates rapidly in the future. Overall the BOJ noted that the key to future policy decision is whether firms maintain positive wage-setting behavior (Japanese major unions recently indicated they are seeking 5-6% wage increases again in the Spring wage bargaining next year.

- Japan 5-year JGB yield rises by 2bps to 1.265%, highest since July 2008 with long end of the Japanese yield curve steepening. (UST 10years also rise +3.5% to 4.13% and 30-year +2.7% to 4.73%). Comes as Japan PM Takaichi confirmed will not ditch government primary balance target for FY2025.

- Taiwan’s October Trade Balance doubled expectations at $22.6B as year on year exports ripped higher by 50%.

- RBA Dep Gov Hauser said that financial conditions are more close to neutral than we thought a while ago, echoing comments from Gov Bullock after last week’s RBA hold.

- US Equity FUTs +0.7% to +1.1% during Asian trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted releases, using Asian time zone)

- Tue Nov 11th DE ZEW Econ Sentiment.

- Wed Nov 12th.

- Thu Nov 13th CN Oct Data Dump, (Thu eve UK Q3 prelim GDP).

Holidays in Asia this week

- No holidays in Asia this week.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.2% at 8,785.

- New Zealand PM Luxon: Wants domestic banks to pass on the RBNZ rate cuts at a faster pace.

- RBA Dep Gov Hauser: Policy needs to be restrictive enough to meet goals of RBA - speech "On the Rails or Off to the Races? The Outlook for the Australian Economy" - UBS Australasia Conference, Sydney.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens +0.3% at 26,319; Shanghai Composite opens +0.1% at 4,001.

- CHINA OCT CPI Y/Y: +0.2% V -0.1%E [largest rise since Jan] [weekend update].

- China Q3 Preliminary Current Account Balance: $195.6B v $128.7B prior [weekend update].

- China Gold Association: China 9M YTD Gold Output 392.9Mt, +3.6% y/y.

- China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): China suspends ban on US-bound shipments of dual-use goods related to gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials until Nov 27, 2026 - statement (update).

- China MOFCOM: China implements measures to exempt Nexperia chips for civilian use; VW China Chief confirms carmakers now receiving chip deliveries following supply halt [weekend update].

- China Customs: Will end ban on import of US logs from Nov 10th.

- China halts special port fees for US vessels for one year - China Transport Ministry.

- China to resume imports of US soybeans from three companies – [weekend update].

- (US) Treasury Sec Bessent: On our way to solving China's chokehold on rare earths [late Fri update].

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +0.8% at 50,636.

- Bank of Japan (BoJ) summary of opinions for Oct 30th policy meeting: Key to future policy decision is whether firms maintain positive wage-setting behaviour.

- Japan Oct Total Reserve Assets: $1.35T v $1.34T prior (fresh record high).

- Japan PM Takaichi: Confirms will not ditch government primary balance target for FY2025; there are various ways to define national debt, not meant to nullify current primary balance target.

- BOJ’s Nakagawa: Considering high uncertainties remain regarding impact of trade and other, BOJ will make monetary policy decisions as appropriate by continuing to assess data and information that becomes available - speech at Okayama Club in Okayama prefecture.

- Japan 5-year JGB yield rises by 2bps to 1.265%, highest since July 2008.

- Japan Trade Min Akazawa: Trying to diversify rare earth procurement sources and secure stable supply.

Korea

- Kospi opens +1.0%% at 3,991

- South Korea National Pension Service (NPS) might purchase more domestic equities - Local press.

- South Korea official: Relevant US dept views have to be added to US-South Korea joint factsheet [weekend update].

Other Asia

- Indonesia Oct Consumer Confidence: 121.2 v 115.0 prior.

- Taiwan Oct Trade Balance: $22.6B v $11.0Be; Exports Y/Y: 49.7% v 31.5%e [late Fri update].

North America

- (US) Senate advances government funding bill to end shutdown (as expected, follows record 40-day shutdown).

- (US) Senate Democrat Kaine: 'Backs' GOP bill to end shutdown; Politico also reports Senate reaches deal on ending the shutdown, at least 8 votes from Senate Democratic caucus are in favor of the deal[implies at least 61 votes in support of the measure].

- US Senate Appropriations Panel publishes new Stopgap Bill text - financial press.

- WorldACD Weekly Air Cargo Trends (week 44): Tonnages on track for +4% growth this year.

- (US) Ninth Circuit Appeals Court final ruling on Trump Admin's troop deployment in Portland still pending, follows US District Judge Immergut issuing a permanent injunction against federalizing Oregon's National Guard troop deployment - press [weekend update].

- (US) White House NEC Dir Hassett: Q4 GDP growth will be lower due to shutdown; Outlook for growth is 'just fantastic'; Next year could be 4% [weekend update].

- (US) Trump: I am recommending to Senate Republicans that the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars currently being sent to money sucking Insurance Companies in order to save the bad Healthcare provided by ObamaCare, Be sent directly to the people so that they can purchase their own, much better, healthcare [weekend update].

- (US) Fed releases Nov Financial Stability Report; Demand for a broad range of higher-risk assets bounced back after the market declines in April 2025 [weekend update].

- (US) Nov preliminary University of Michigan confidence: 50.3 V 53.0E (lowest since June 2022) [late Fri update].

- (US) Sept consumer credit: $13.1B V $10.2BE [late Fri update].

- (US) Senate Republican aide: Democrat proposal to end shutdown is dead on arrival [late Fri update].

- (US) Senate Minority Leader Schumer: Democrats propose extending ACA subsidies for one year to end shutdown; Majority Leader Thune needs to add these one-year extensions to Obamacare subsidies to the stopgap funding bill [late Fri update].

Europe

- (UR) US reportedly supports EU using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine and bring swifter end to war – press [late Fri update].

- (RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Work in being undertaken on Putin's order to prepare proposals for potential Russia nuclear tests - Russian press [weekend update].

- China MOFCOM: China implements measures to exempt Nexperia chips for civilian use; VW China Chief confirms carmakers now receiving chip deliveries following supply halt (update).

- (NL) Reportedly Dutch govt ready to drop control of Nexperia if chip supply resumes – press [late Fri update].

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 +1.3%, ASX 200 +0.7%, Hang Seng +0.7%; Shanghai Composite +0.1%; Kospi +3.6%- Equity S&P500 Futures +0.7%; Nasdaq100 +1.2%;

DAX +1.4%; FTSE100 +0.9%.

- EUR 1.1542-1.1563; JPY 153.43-154.06; AUD 0.6490-0.6527; NZD 0.5620--5637.

- Gold +1.3% at $4,054/oz; BTC +4.0% at $106,400; Crude Oil +0.9% at $60.29bbl; Copper +1.8% at $5.0455/lb.