Retail Sales ‘worth the wait’ with 0.6% uplift in July
According to this morning’s ONS retail sales data, sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.6% in July 2025, following a downwardly revised increase of 0.3% in June 2025.
Non-store retailers and clothing stores sales volumes grew strongly in July 2025, which retailers attributed to new products, good weather, and an increase resulting from the UEFA Women’s EURO 2025 tournament.
July’s Retail Sales data was worth the wait with volumes rising by an encouraging 0.6%, reinforcing June’s 0.3% uptick and providing a needed boost for the Government amid a storm of negative headlines.
Thanks to the warm weather, new products and a string of sports events, retailers saw a flurry of sales and an uplift in footfall.
While many businesses will be hoping this trend continues into August with school holidays and back-to-school preparations, the outlook for consumer spending looks rocky.
Inflation is back on the march and the Bank of England has just poured cold water over future interest rate cuts - despite the current rate standing well above historic levels. Meanwhile, growing angst around the now confirmed Autumn Budget and a cocktail of alarming data on the jobs market and economic outlook could see households pulling the plug on spending in the coming months.
Given this uncertainty, retailers should focus on strengthening their resilience. Careful planning, reducing supply chain and operational costs, and putting robust FX hedging strategies in place can help safeguard margins and provide the flexibility needed to adapt quickly to shifts in demand and market conditions.
Author
Matthew Ryan, CFA
Ebury
Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.
