Reforms of the PBoC's loan prime rate

Stephen Innes SPI Asset Management

Pboc

Reforms of the PBoC's loan prime rate (LPR) have opened up the door for potential rate cuts and should immediately offer up a reprive to Chinese companies.

USDCNH swaps gapped lower before the spot market opened. Despite the LPR reforms not being direct rate cuts or a liquidity injection, given the recent elevated levels in FX funding Swaps and weak economic data, Swaps markets are expected to come under selling pressure in the next few sessions.

This new system is supposed to be more market-based. It's designed to lower borrowing costs for the real economy, rather than cut existing interest rates straight away, signalling a continuation of Beijing's targeted-easing approach.

While not quite the policy bazooka the market so desperately needs, still with the Pboc opening the taps to a possible policy cut, it should provide a much-needed boost to regional sentiment and global commodity prices.

Oil

Oil markets continue to trade on a favourable tone boosted by the prospects of more aggressive central bank policy stimulus while the terrorist attack on a Saudi gas terminal has temporarily increased middle east risk premiums.

Gold

XAUUSD has been range-bound this morning trading with a softer bias as equity sentiment remains positive. With a big play unlikely in the cards ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, traders will look to short-term momentum for intraday trading cues. In the medium-term, the market remains biased to buy XAUUSD on dips while prices remain above 14880-85, with further support into 1450. On the topside, the next significant resistance level to overcome is 1535/50 where breakout orders are getting sizably layered.

Euro

EURUSD remains under pressure, with euro cross being aggressive offered this morning following last weeks dovish comments from ECB Governing Council member Rehn

Yen
Range trade setting mentality is setting in today, but JPY pair remain susceptible to headlines on trade and risk, so G-10 traders are closely monitoring US equities and yields.

Author

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

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