Rally hits the pause button as Fed policy confusion and AI doubts weigh

The market stumbled for a second straight session, conviction faltering as the twin shadows of Fed policy uncertainty and AI fatigue returned to unsettle traders. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4%, the Dow eased 0.3%, and the Nasdaq retreated 0.4%, erasing earlier strength and reminding investors that even this relentless rally isn’t invincible. What had looked like a straight-line sprint from April’s collapse now resembles a runner hitting the wall—still advancing, but suddenly burdened by gravity.

The drag isn’t linked to any specific headline, but the thickest fog rolls in courtesy of the Federal Reserve. The market is still digesting Powell striking a middle path—recognizing inflation’s persistence while conceding that the labour market is fraying—yet in doing so, he left the market hanging in midair. His observation that equities are “fairly highly valued” wasn’t delivered as a warning, but it landed that way. For traders already stretched and leaning hard into risk, it sounded like the faint whistle of an official preparing to call time on overexuberance. And now, with several Fed officials circling the wagons around that cautious stance, it doesn’t take much to sway sentiment in these overcrowded stock trades.

And overexuberance there has been. This year’s rally has taken on the feel of a festival—AI as the headliner, supported by side acts like gold and the short-dollar trade. Crowds packed the field, skeptics converted, and even the most cautious funds leaned long. But when the music pauses, silence feels deafening. Micron, nearly doubled on the year, slipped despite upbeat forecasts. Alibaba, Lithium Americas, even the broad chip complex lost traction. It wasn’t about bad news; it was about oxygen running thin at altitude.

The AI debate is front and center again, a familiar tug-of-war between faith in the future and fear of the tab. Traders woke to find that even after a sparkling earnings print, Micron is one of the worst performers in the S&P 500—proof that the market is no longer handing out free passes. Results were solid, the forward guide strong, but the tape is asking harder questions: how much AI is too much, and who foots the bill when the euphoria fades?

The hyperscalers—Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle—remain the lifeblood of this trade. Their capex trajectories are the scaffolding upon which the AI dream has been built, the money hose that feeds semiconductors, servers, and data centers. But every hose has a nozzle, and the market is starting to test whether these giants can keep the spigot wide open without choking on their own spending. AI infrastructure stocks trade as if demand is infinite, but costs are finite—a math equation that can’t hold forever.

Micron’s stumble embodies this friction. Investors had already priced in perfection, so when perfection showed up, the stock still sold off. That is not a repudiation of the story—it’s a reminder that the AI trade has run hot, with skeptics turned believers and portfolios already stuffed to the gills. To climb higher, the market now demands something beyond good earnings: it wants proof that this spending spree is not just sustainable, but inexhaustible.

It’s worth remembering that capital expenditure cycles, even those gilded with innovation, are not straight lines. They surge, pause, consolidate, then surge again. The AI buildout has the velocity of a gold rush, but history reminds us that the picks and shovels trade never moves in one direction forever. The rally of the last year has blurred that reality, but Micron’s post-earnings slide put it back in focus.

So the question markets are grappling with today isn’t whether AI is real—it is. The question is whether the economics of AI can live up to the narrative without cannibalizing the very companies funding it. That tension will define the trade from here: enthusiasm colliding with arithmetic, hype sparring with cash flow. The bulls still own the trend, but the burden of proof is shifting. AI has captured imaginations. Now it must justify the bill.

Treasuries joined in, yields edging higher, the dollar finding a bid, both serving as quiet reminders that liquidity is not boundless. Gold, too, softened, signaling that the Fed’s careful dance has unsettled more than just equities. The whole complex of over-subscribed trades—long stocks, long gold, short dollar—looked suddenly less bulletproof.

Still, this is no crash, no rug-pull. The bull market that began in October 2022 is still young by historical standards. Five previous bull markets lasted an average of eight years; this one hasn’t even turned three. Corporate profits are improving, AI capex continues to blaze a trail, and positioning, while heavy, is built on more than just hot air. There’s an undercurrent of cautious optimism rather than the reckless abandon that marked true bubbles. Even Powell’s comments came across more like musings than warnings, more observation than indictment.

The bigger story might be seasonal, with pension rebalancing and quarter-end calendar friction ahead. However, September’s reputation as the market’s cruellest month has been defied, as the S&P notched numerous records this month. But October looms—the most volatile month of them all, its swings 30% wider than the rest. Friday’s inflation data could stoke or soothe the stagflation narrative that keeps poking its head above the surface. Traders know the path higher isn’t in question, but the cadence is.

For now, the market looks like a sailboat trimming its sails after a burst of speed—still upright, still moving, but testing the breeze before leaning hard again. The Fed’s mixed crosscurrents have made this less a straight dash and more a navigation exercise, and Wall Street has chosen to steady the tiller rather than risk capsizing.