Preview of the US Existing Home Sales

Ali Merchant, CMT TwT Learning

Purpose

Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction.

Key highlights

The U.S. housing market outlook for July 2025 reflects a complex landscape shaped by high mortgage rates, rising inventory, moderating home price growth, and regional variations.
30-year fixed mortgage rates are hovering around 6.7–7.0% as of early July 2025, up from 6.2% in September 2024 but below the 7.79% peak in October 2023.
Active listings reached a post-pandemic peak of over 1 million in June 2025, up 29% YoY, with 826,000 single-family homes unsold by mid-June. New listings are outpacing sales, with 34% more sellers than buyers in May, creating a 500,000-home surplus
High rates and prices have suppressed demand, with home sales remaining below 6 million annually. Existing home sales rose 2% YoY in January 2025, marking four consecutive months of gains, but overall activity remains muted.
President Donald Trump on Wednesday said the administration is weighing whether to exempt home sales from capital-gains taxes. That could loosen a constricted housing market, according to the bill the president was referencing.

US interest rate probabilities

US IR probabilities show about 95.30% and 41.3% no rate change in July and September, respectively.
The market is looking at 56.1% and 48.5% rate cut in September or October.

Technical analysis perspective

US existing Home Sales

US existing home sales dropped to the lowest in October 2023 to 3.85 million before moving higher to 4.31 million in February 2024.
Since October 2023 to date existing home sales have been moving along a rising trendline; holding this month around 3.93 million.
Existing home sales peaked around 4.31 -4.27 million since October 2023.
The number of existing homes sale is gradually going to grow with a possibility that we may see flat to a slightly higher sale in June 2025.

US new Home Sales

US new home sales are testing a rising trendline at 614 K. A rise to 665 K is likely above 614 k support.

US 30Y mortgage rate

US 30Y mortgage rates are going to remain between 6.90 to 6.60 hovering in a descending triangle like pattern.

Such a pattern favors a downside breakout of 6.60 support targeting 5.50 in the coming months.

Author

Ali Merchant, CMT

TwT Learning

Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management, He has been trading FX, FX options, US stock

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