Preview of the US Existing Home Sales

Purpose

Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction.

Key highlights

• The U.S. housing market outlook for July 2025 reflects a complex landscape shaped by high mortgage rates, rising inventory, moderating home price growth, and regional variations.
• 30-year fixed mortgage rates are hovering around 6.7–7.0% as of early July 2025, up from 6.2% in September 2024 but below the 7.79% peak in October 2023.
• Active listings reached a post-pandemic peak of over 1 million in June 2025, up 29% YoY, with 826,000 single-family homes unsold by mid-June. New listings are outpacing sales, with 34% more sellers than buyers in May, creating a 500,000-home surplus
• High rates and prices have suppressed demand, with home sales remaining below 6 million annually. Existing home sales rose 2% YoY in January 2025, marking four consecutive months of gains, but overall activity remains muted.
• President Donald Trump on Wednesday said the administration is weighing whether to exempt home sales from capital-gains taxes. That could loosen a constricted housing market, according to the bill the president was referencing.

US interest rate probabilities

• US IR probabilities show about 95.30% and 41.3% no rate change in July and September, respectively.
• The market is looking at 56.1% and 48.5% rate cut in September or October.

Technical analysis perspective

US existing Home Sales

• US existing home sales dropped to the lowest in October 2023 to 3.85 million before moving higher to 4.31 million in February 2024.
• Since October 2023 to date existing home sales have been moving along a rising trendline; holding this month around 3.93 million.
• Existing home sales peaked around 4.31 -4.27 million since October 2023.
• The number of existing homes sale is gradually going to grow with a possibility that we may see flat to a slightly higher sale in June 2025.

US new Home Sales

US new home sales are testing a rising trendline at 614 K. A rise to 665 K is likely above 614 k support.

US 30Y mortgage rate

US 30Y mortgage rates are going to remain between 6.90 to 6.60 hovering in a descending triangle like pattern.

Such a pattern favors a downside breakout of 6.60 support targeting 5.50 in the coming months.