This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Up+ and Crude is Down- which is normal and the 30 year Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up+. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

Asia is trading Mixed with half the exchanges Higher and the other half Lower. Currently Europe is trading Higher with the exception of the Milan exchange which is trading Lower at this time.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Core PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Retail Sales is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Core Retail Sales is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Empire State Manufacturing Index is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
Capacity Utilization Rate is out at 9:15 AM EST. Not Major.
Industrial Production m/m is out at 9:15 AM EST. Major.
Business Inventories m/m is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major.
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is out at 10 AM EST. Major.
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations is out at 10 AM EST. Major.

Treasuries

Traders please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 30 year (ZB) to the 10 year (ZN). They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 10 year bond (ZN) and The S&P futures contract. The S&P contract is the Standard and Poor's and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZN made it's move at around 10 AM EST. The ZN hit a Low at around that time and the S&P moved Lower. If you look at the charts below ZN gave a signal at around 10 AM EST and the S&P moved Lower at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZN hit a Low at around 10 AM EST and the S&P was moving Lower shortly thereafter. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15 minute chart to display better. This represented a Long opportunity on the 10 year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $15.625. Please note: the front month for the ZN is now Mar '21. The S&P contract is now March '21. I've changed the format to Renko bars such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform

ZN - Mar 2021 - 1/14/21

S&P - Mar 2021 - 1/14/21

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral bias as all instruments we use for market correlation purposes were trading Lower and this does not reflect a correlated market. The Dow dropped 69 points and the other indices lost ground as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the Downside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Well yesterday morning the S&P was Higher but we gave a Neutral bias because all the instruments we use to track market correlation was pointed Lower. Whenever there's a situation whereby all instruments are pointed either higher or lower, there is no market correlation and therefore we suggest a Neutral bias. Today we have a total of 10 economic reports, most of which are major so we have a mini tsunami in terms of eco news. President-elect Biden has given us a blueprint of what he'll do once he's sworn in as President. This is certainly better than finding out after the fact.

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.