Pound Remains Under Pressure; GBP/USD and WTI Crude Oil Met Our Suggested Targets!

The U.S. dollar remained firm against the major currencies on Monday following Friday's strong NFP report while the euro has experienced a choppy session. The pound plunged against the majors on speculations that BoE will ease the monetary policy further. The UK NIESR GDP growth for the three months to July coming out today will be closely watched. WTI Crude Oil rebounded and continues upwards while gold fell sharply on Friday and remained at the same levels since then.

U.S. dollar and euro remained firmed
The U.S. dollar remained firm against the major currencies following Friday's strong NFP report. The labour market conditions released showed a significant improvement in July rising to 1.0 from ‐1.9 before. The single currency has experienced a choppy session. Even though the news came out for the euro was optimistic, none of them was strong enough to pick up the currency. The German industrial production increased 0.8% in August compared to the previous month that contracted 0.9%. The Eurozone's sentix investor confidence for August showed a severe rise to 4.2 above expectations of 3.0 and by far higher the previous month's figure of 1.7.

Later in the day, German trade balance, exports and imports for June will be released. The trade balance is expected to come in slightly lower at €22.1B from €22.2B before. The exports are forecasted to have risen 1.0% from a drop of 1.8% in May, while the imports are anticipated to have increased 0.6% versus 0.1% before.

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD pair is trading with flat movement near the 1.1080 price level since yesterday's session and is virtually unchanged during the European morning. Currently, the common pair is moving below the 50‐weekly SMA which is ready to provide a strong resistance to the traders. The price had already a rebound on the aforementioned obstacle and is also trading below the three SMA's (50‐SMA, 100‐SMA, 200‐SMA) on the daily chart. In addition, on the same chart, the 50‐SMA had a bearish crossover with the 200‐SMA and I will use it as a rebound area for the week ahead. Going to a lower timeframe, the pair is above the 200‐SMA which indicated an upside potential move probably until the 1.1120 resistance level. Technical indicators are still moving in a negative territory while the MACD oscillator had a bullish crossover with its trigger line. The RSI indicator is following a bearish path and approaching the 30 level. Our suggestion is a bounced off the 1.1120 barrier and then a continuation of the downward move. An alternative scenario is a break above the latter level will open the doors for the 1.1200 psychological level.

Pound fell on speculation for more easing
The British pound slipped against all the major currencies on speculations of further easing following the last policy meeting on Thursday. However, the retail sales indicator released yesterday revealed a big increase in sales in July compared to the same month a year earlier. According to the British Retail Consortium latest survey, the total sales increased 1.1% from a contract of 0.7% expected. Later on, the UK manufacturing and industrial production figures will be closely watched.

GBP/USD – Technical Outlook
The GBP/USD pair fell 0.28% over yesterday's period and dropped below our suggested entry level at 1.3060. The pair reached our target at 1.3020 and plunged until the 1.2980 support level. The cable created a fresh one‐month low and a penetration of the 1.2980 barrier will expose the price until the 1.2920 support barrier. On the 4‐ hour chart, the three SMA's (50‐SMA, 100‐SMA, 200‐SMA) stuck near the 1.3170 resistance level and the technical indicators are moving near the oversold area. On a lower timeframe, the 50‐SMA is near the 1.3070 strong resistance level and is sloping downwards to meet the current market price. On the same chart, 1‐hour chart, the MACD oscillator is moving below both, its zero and trigger lines, increasing the probabilities for further decline. The RSI indicator is falling and is following the oversold zone.

USD/JPY – Technical Outlook
The USD/JPY pair is moving higher over the last week following the pullback from the 100.70 strong support level. The pair surged more than 1.5% the last six days and is currently trading below the resistance level at 102.70. If the price surpasses above the aforementioned obstacle then will challenge the 103.40 barrier which coincides with the 50‐daily SMA. On the other hand, a failed attempt will endorse the bearish scenario to continue the major trend of the currency declining to the 101.70 support level. Going to a lower timeframe, the price is moving above the 50‐SMA and is providing a good support for a downward move. Technical indicators, on the 4‐hour chart, are following a positive territory while the MACD is moving above the zero line after several days. The RSI indicator is sloping upwards and is trying to challenge the 70 level.

Gold – Technical Outlook
The yellow metal plunged more than 1% over last week's session after it failed to surpass the $1,367 price level following the U.S. non‐farm payrolls report. The pair dropped at the $1,329 support level which is near with the 50‐SMA on the daily chart. From the technical point of view, on the weekly chart, the 50‐SMA had a bullish crossover with the 100‐SMA while the technical indicators (MACD and RSI) are moving in a positive territory. On the daily chart, the price is moving above the three SMAs (50‐SMA, 100‐SMA, 200‐SMA) and the technical indicators are falling while the RSI fell below its mid‐level. Going to the lower timeframe, the precious metal is trading below the three SMAs and the technical indicators are endorsing the bearish movement. The MACD oscillator is falling with strong momentum and is below the zero level. Moreover, the RSI indicator is approaching the oversold area. Our suggestion is a further downside move until the significant support zone at $1,310 ‐ $1,305.

WTI and Brent Crude Oil – Technical Outlook
A meeting between OPEC and non‐OPEC countries may take place in the coming weeks as the crisis in South American search for weak oil markets. During yesterday's session, the WTI Crude oil surged more than 2% and broke the descending 4‐hour trend line to the upside. The oil reached our suggested target at $43.80 and had a rebound on the latter level. Currently, the pair found a strong support at the 100‐SMA and is trading near the $43.25 price level. If the price drops below the downtrend line which overlaps with the $42.60 then will meet again the $41.55 strong support level. On the other hand, if the oil surpasses the $43.80 resistance barrier will open the way for the $45.00 psychological level. Technical indicators are moving in a positive territory while the RSI is sloping downwards. The MACD oscillator is still rising with strong momentum.

What to watch today
Today, the UK industrial and manufacturing for June are coming out. The industrial production is expected to have increased 0.1% mom in June from a drop of 0.5% before while the manufa production is forecasted to contract 0.2% from a slump of 0.5%. The UK goods trade balance is also coming out while the NIESR GDP estimate for the three months to July will be closely watched.

In U.S., the wholesale inventories for June will be released as well as the IBD/TIPP economic optimism for August and the API weekly crude oil stock. Overnight, traders will keep a tab for the Japanese machinery orders for June and the domestic corporate goods price index for July. The Australian Westpac consumer confidence for August will be released and a while later, the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will give a speech.