Positive risk appetite has extended into Tues’ session –Trump's Iran meeting in focus

General trend and developments

- With Japan still closed, it has been another positive Asian session. Tailwinds were provided on Monday from the upbeat trade-related comments from US and China officials. China state media finally confirmed Pres Xi to visit the US during Sept 23-25th. In NY trading, Meta shares popped on the growing popularity of its Muse personal AI agent. Meanwhile, Trump’s upcoming meeting on Iran might provide further direction regarding the war and oil prices.

- Alibaba [9988.HK]: CEO Wu: Aims to make global data center capacity operated by Alibaba Cloud >20Gw by 2032; notes the launch of the Zhenwu V900 chip - comments from the Alibaba Apsara Conference.

- The recent FX rate check speculation and extended Japanese holiday have kept USD/JPY quiet. Trump is due to meet with Japan PM at 12:30 PM ET.

- PBOC continues to strengthen the Yuan amid positive signs from US and Chinese trade officials. Reportedly, the US proposed extending the trade truce by 6 months, but China pushed for a longer extension [NYT]. On Mon, Bessent stated he is likely to meet with a Chinese delegation in Nov as no agreement was reached on the prior trade truce [FT].

- Berkshire raises bet on US homebuilder amid the higher interest rate environment. The firm acquired approx 2.7M Lennar shares between Sept 17-21st, according to a filing.

- Investment/trade deals in focus amid the UN meetings: According to an unnamed South Korea lawmaker, the government has no plan to purpose semiconductor investment to the US, as further negotiations are needed. A significant amount of investment payment will, also, need to be made by the end of Sept after the formal announcement, said the lawmaker. Vietnam’s leader said a trade deal with the US is ‘close.’ The EU and Philippines disclosed a FTA.
US Pres. Trump said he is working on a massive deal for the purchase of potash from Belarus. Canada’s Trade Min said the country is making great ‘headway’ in concluding the FTA with India. Canada is also continuing trade talks with the US.

- RBA Gov Bullock continues to prioritize inflation ahead of Sept meeting [Sept 29th]. The probability of a Sept RBA rate hike is now above 85%, according to OIS. Upcoming key data releases for Australia include Aug jobs data which is due on Sept 24th [Thurs]. CPI is due on Sept 30th (Wed).

- [Reminder] (US) President Trump reportedly scheduled to hold talks at the UN General Assembly in NY with Gulf leaders next week on Tuesday [September 22nd, 2026]; the meeting is expected to include leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman - Axios].

- (US) White House released President Trump's schedule for Tues: Trump is due to meet with Japan PM at 12:30 PM ET in New York; the GCC leaders meeting is due to be held at 2:45 PM ET.

- Japan markets are closed for holiday Sept 21-23rd.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using EST/EDT time-zone)

- Tue Sep 22nd: EU Prelim Sept Consumer Confidence, (Mon night, AU Prelim Sept S&P Mnfg/Svcs PMI, IN Prelim Sept HSBC Mnfg/Svcs PMI, SG Aug CPI & Core CPI, ID Interest Rate Decision, TW Aug Industrial Production).

- Wed Sep 23rd: EU Prelim Sept HCOB Mnfg/Svcs/Composite PMI, US Prelim Sept S&P Mnfg/Svcs/Composite PMI, (Wed night, JP Prelim Sept S&P Mnfg/Svcs PMI, AU Aug Unemployment Rate).

- Thu Sep 24th: EU ECB Economic Bulletin, HK Aug Trade Balance, US Aug Building Permits & New Home Sales, (Thu night, SG Aug Industrial Production).

- Fri Sep 25th: US Aug Durable Goods Orders.

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon Sep 21st: Japan.

- Tue Sep 22nd: Japan.

- Wed Sep 23rd: Japan.

- Thu Sep 24th: South Korea.

- Fri Sep 25th: China, South Korea, Taiwan.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- (AU) ASX 200 Index opens +0.3% at 8,758.

- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 72.0 v 73.9 prior.

- RBA Hunter interview: think there were a few factors that the board were weighing up.

- RBA Gov Bullock: It has been a 'bit of a wild ride' as Gov; unemployment rate of 4.5-5.0% would probably ease inflationary pressure - [Fireside Chat with Michele Bullock, Governor] Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA), The Fullerton Hotel, Sydney NSW.

- RBNZ Gov Breman said the recent increases in global oil prices and longer-term interest rates reflect the 'challenging' environment - US financial press.

- New Zealand Treasury: Fuel and home-loan costs keep households cautious - Fortnightly Economic Update.

- Australia state [Victoria] has banned data centers from residential areas - US financial press.

- New Zealand government releases independent review on RBNZ monetary policy during COVID: Finance Min Willis said stronger guardrails are now in place for the RBNZ making future policy mistakes far less likely.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng Index opens +0.3% at 25,170.

- Shanghai Composite Index opens +0.4% at 3,963.

- (CN) Reportedly US proposed extending trade truce by 6 months, China pushed for a longer extension - NYT [US market close].

- USTR Greer: Repeats excess capacity probe is ongoing; China is following through on commitments on trade issues; We're just going to have managed trade with China; Focus with China is on stability in trade ties; Indicates 3-6 month truce extension could be possible with China; Sees 'natural obstacles' to China EV investments in US; China has been doing what they promised on soybean purchases; Rare earth deliveries are rising, though we'd like higher quantities; China is also making progress on its Boeing aircraft commitments from May; There is no grand bargain to be had with China.

- (US) Treasury Sec Bessent: China talks have some deliverables; US-China to meet in two months on AI in Shenzhen – CNBC; US looking to sell more agriculture and energy; See possibility for 2 more Xi-Trump 2026 meetings after this week; Had behind-the-scenes talks with China on Iran.

- (CN) Over two dozen US lawmakers urge President Trump to maintain ban on Chinese automakers - letter.

- (CN) China PBOC Gov Pan Gongsheng: Reiterates to implement moderately loose monetary policy [EU market close].

- China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7459 v 6.7487 prior [PBOC continues to fix the Yuan at the strongest level since Feb 3rd, 2023].

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY35B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net injects CNY35B CNY#B v injects CNY165B prior.

- (CN) DEEPSEEK.IPO Said to bet big on Huawei chips; Huawei to deliver AI training chips to DeepSeek by Q4 -The Information [US market close].

- Certain banks in China raise deposit rates amid competition for clients – Chinese press.

Japan

- Nikkei225 closed for holiday.

- Japan said to ease curbs on regional bank loans on AI and energy - Nikkei.

- (JP) Japan PM Takaichi reportedly to stress Japan investment in talks with Trump [EU market close].

Korea

- Kospi Index opens +2.2% at 7,161.

- South Korea Lawmaker: Has no plan to purpose semiconductor investment to the US.

- South Korea said to affirm plans to seek $20B annual investment cap on US investments; both sides have not reached an agreement on the previously speculated Westinghouse stake investment; South Korea President Lee calls for sanctions against North Korea to be lifted in return for suspending nuclear program - financial press.

-(KR) US, Japan and South Korea joint statement: affirms a free and open Indo-Pacific, seeks to uphold the rule of law, and remain committed to denuclearization of North Korea [EU market close].

- LG Electronics [066570.KR]: The co. and Microsoft have expanded strategic partnership related to AI and data centers - Press.

Other Asia

-(IN) JPMorgan CEO Dimon comments on India: India is the fastest-growing economy, but taxation and rules can deter investment; still sees the US as a 'strong' investment destination; noted currencies reflected expectations about inflation and the relative strength of economies - Economic Times.

- (PH) EU Von Der Leyen: Spoke to Philippines President Marcos and we just agreed to FTA.

- (TW) Taiwan Central Bank (CBC) is planning to meet with banks to ensure lending to companies - EDN.

- (VN) Vietnam leader says deal with the US is close, denies re-routing China goods – US financial press.

North America

-(US) USTR Greer: U.S is developing rules of origin with Mexico; Repeats excess capacity probe is ongoing; China is following through on commitments on trade issues [US market close].

-(US) Pres. Trump: Doom warnings about AI are a hoax; I will only encourage AI; We will be careful and rein it in if necessary - Truth Social [US market close].

-(US) Treasury Sec Bessent said to present Trump with US-China AI agreement; To include "hotline" for communication - press.

-(US) Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter): Strong demand may be adding to US inflation, 'no ambiguity' how Fed would react [US market close].

-(US) Fed's Musalem (non-voter, hawk): When stripping out supply-related factors, inflation is still too high at up to 3%.

-(US) CMS Announces New Preliminary Medicare Payment Rates for Laboratory Services, Saving Taxpayers an Estimated $1B Annually; Determined that Medicare has been paying 16% more than private payors [US market close].

-(US) FAA expands groundstops at NYC and Boston airports due to telecom issues [US market close].

-(US) Aug Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.04 v -0.04e [US market close].

-(US) Aug US Net trailer orders 24.1K units, +43% m/m, +221% y/y - FTRintel.com.

-(US) META Wells Fargo Reiterates META with Overweight, price target: $796 from $640 - Analyst said that they expect significant product demos at Meta Conference with heavy focus on the Muse AI assistant, which has seen downloads & DAUs accelerating last few days and tracking above other AI apps in first 12 days since launch. [US market close].

-(US) CE Raises again acetyl product prices in Americas and EMEA, effective immediately [**TTN Note: Celanese had announced broad Acetyl price actions in February, March and May] [US market close].

-(CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Macklem: We don't want to raise rates and restrain growth if inflationary pressures are contained; If new US tariffs remain in place, growth could be roughly halved in the fourth quarter, to below 1% [US market close].

-Microsoft [MSFT] XBOX is planning to cut 'hundreds' of jobs as part of a consolidation of game studios - The Information.

Europe

-(EU) ECB Lane: European economy should continue to grow at a steady, but moderate pace provided the energy shock does not intensify - Le Temps; The second wave of energy price increases will result in higher inflation, before declining toward target from mid-2027 onward.

-(DK) Follow-up: US plans to reopen military base in southern Greenland, establish a second site in eastern Greenland; the US plans to sign an agreement with Denmark and Greenland at the UN on Tues – financial press.

- G7 issues statement on the Middle East: Situation in Yemen represents an unacceptable threat to regional stability and security, to global energy security.

-(RU) Reportedly Russian firms are converting Baltic and Arctic coal and fertilizer terminals to handling grain exports as shipments stall from Black Sea ports amid the war - press [EU market close].

-(DE) German Bundesbank Monthly Report: See economy growing slightly in Q3 and recovering in Q4 [EU market close].

-(US) Pres. Trump: Russia has unfortunately lost control of its Diesel Oil Industry due to its War with Ukraine [US market close].

-(US) Pres Trump has reportedly told Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy on Sunday he was very worried about diesel prices and again asked Zelenskiy to stop hitting Russian refineries - FT [EU market close].

-(US) Pres. Trump: working on a massive deal for purchase of potash from Belarus - Truth Social [US market close].

-(DE) German Chancellor Merz: CDU party needs to draw consequences from disappointing regional election [EU market close].

-(UK) BOE’s Breeden: Its hard for humans to oversee agentic AI in real time: Have questions about whether regulation is adequately set up for AI [EU market close].

-Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE]: The co's asset managers said to explore curbs related to property funds in Germany; Specifically, DWS is mulling 'emergency' measures to stave off a liquidity crunch at 3 of its German property funds - FT.

Middle East

-(IR) US President Trump: I have meetings on Iran today in New York.

-(IR) US President Trump will propose $5B rebuild fund for Middle East energy - WSJ [US market close].

-(YE) Reportedly Trump spoke Yemen President on Sunday; Yemen govt asked for support against the Houthis, but Trump made no promise of military support - press [US market close].

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 closed; ASX 200 +0.4%; Hang Seng +0.2%; Shanghai Composite +0.1%; Kospi +0.2%.

Equity S&P500 Futures flat; Nasdaq100 +0.1%; DAX +0.1%; FTSE100 +0.1%.

EUR 1.1478-1.1463; JPY 157.57-157.26; AUD 0.7126-0.7098; NZD 0.5741-0.5694.

Gold -0.2% at $4,373/oz; BTC -1.5% at $85,256 ; WTI Crude Oil +1.1% at $93.40/bbl; Copper +0.5% at $6.8297/lb.