Morning briefing: Euro towards 1.14 or lower

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar index looks bullish for the near term which can drag Euro towards 1.14 or lower. The USDJPY and EURJPY look bullish while EURINR can decline towards 109. Aussie looks bullish towards 0.72/73 while Pound looks weak for a decline towards 1.33/32. The USDINR has room to rise more but we could initially see a decline to 95.50 before it pauses for a reversal.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have come down. However, both have support coming up which can halt this fall. The broader outlook remains bullish. As such the Treasury and the German Yields can bounce back from their support and resume their broader uptrend eventually. The 10Yr GoI remains lower. It is likely to rise back again and resume the upmove either from here itself or after some more dip.

Dow remains vulnerable below 53000, with a break below 52000 opening the way towards 51000. DAX can test 26000, with a break above this level opening 26500. Nifty needs to break above 23500 to turn bullish towards 23800. Nikkei is testing 67000 resistance, with a break above it opening 69000-70000. Shanghai is attempting to break above 3950, with a sustained break opening 4000-4050.

Brent and WTI have fallen sharply amid hopes of easing Middle East tensions, with $98-$96 and $90-$88 acting as crucial support regions. Gold can rise towards $4500-$4600 while above $4300. Silver can rise towards $68-$70 while above $63. Copper is testing $6.80-$6.85 resistance, with a break above it opening $7.00 and higher. Natural Gas remains range-bound between $2.80-$3.00.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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