Politics remains the main driver of FX

Alexander Kuptsikevich FxPro

The US government shutdown did not have a noticeable impact on the dollar's performance last week. However, it did help the stock market to grow slightly by strengthening expectations of monetary policy easing.

However, these events pale in comparison to the change in Japan's ruling elite and the resignation of the French prime minister less than a day after the formation of the government in terms of their impact on the currency market.

In Japan, Sanae Takaichi was chosen head of the Liberal Democratic Party over the weekend and is on track to become the country's first female prime minister. This event caused the yen to fall 2% to 150.49 from Friday's level before correcting to 149.80 at the time of writing. Takaichi is considered a supporter of aggressive government spending, structural reforms, and soft monetary policy, echoing the basic principles of Shinzo Abe. Overall, she has a more right-wing approach to national policy and is also a supporter of revising Japan's pacifist constitution.

The market reaction clearly shows that they are considering Takaichi to be the new prime minister. If she does not change her political views (and she has softened them recently to win the party elections), we should be prepared for a further weakening of the yen, which reached its highest level since 1991 in the EURJPY pair, exceeding 176.

However, the single currency is also facing uncertainty today due to a new political crisis in France. Prime Minister Lecornu, who had been trying to form a government for a month, resigned the day after he finally presented his new cabinet. His appointments drew criticism from both left-wing and right-wing allies. The EURUSD fell to 1.1650 at its lowest point on Monday, losing a full cent against Friday's levels.

Unlike Japan, where a 2% drop in the JPY was accompanied by a 5% jump in the Nikkei225 index, France's CAC40 lost more than 2% intraday, paring its losses to 1.2% towards the end of the trading day in Europe.

The EURUSD stopped its climb in July and has been hovering around 1.1700 all this time, not least because of the political crisis in France. Without it, the single currency would have had a much better chance of exploiting political divisions in the US to its advantage.

It would be an exaggeration to call the situation in Japan and France a drama. Still, these events once again emphasise that as soon as the dollar's throne begins to shake, the ground beneath other currencies begins to tremble.

Author

Alexander Kuptsikevich

FxPro

Alexander Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, has been with the company since its foundation. From time to time, he gives commentaries on radio and television. He publishes in major economic and socio-political media.

AUD/USD pulls back from monthly high but holds above 0.7000

AUD/USD retreats from the monthly high set earlier this Thursday, sliding back to 0.7000 during the Asian session as a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East undermines the risk-sensitive Aussie. However, recent hawkish comments from RBA officials could support the Australian Dollar. Furthermore, the prevailing US Dollar selling bias, despite Fed hike bets and geopolitical uncertainties, could limit losses for the pair.

USD/JPY declines to a one-week low; eyes trading range support near 157.50 on weaker USD

USD/JPY drops to a one-week low during Thursday’s Asian session, with bears now awaiting a break below multi-week range support near mid-157.00s before placing fresh bets amid a broadly weaker US Dollar. Despite bets for a December Fed rate hike and Middle East jitters, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps USD depressed near a three-week low. Moreover, hawkish BoJ expectations and intervention risks underpin the Japanese Yen, further weighing on the currency pair.

Gold extends fall below $4,100 as Fed hike bets counter USD weakness

Gold weakens further below $4,100, hitting a fresh one-week low as oil-driven inflation risks reinforce Fed hike bets and weigh on the bullion heading into the European session. Meanwhile, falling US bond yields keep the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low despite geopolitical uncertainties. This, however, does little to support the non-yielding bullion, backing the case for further losses.

Dogecoin stays weak despite whales and new deal

Dogecoin price remains under pressure, trading below $0.081 despite a modest rebound earlier this week. Santiment data shows signs of accumulation, and Wednesday’s announcement of a Dogecoin Labs partnership with the Dogecoin Foundation adds a mildly bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, mixed derivatives metrics and weakening momentum indicators continue to limit the meme coin recovery.

Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs with the AI trade, led by a bank

The Dow Jones Industrial Average got most of its share of Wednesday's artificial intelligence (AI) rally from a bank and a bulldozer maker. The index closed near 52,800, its highest close since early September. SpaceX (SPCX) reported 161% revenue growth and the Nasdaq Composite rose more than 1%, but under price weighting the gains that counted most belonged to Goldman Sachs (GS) and Caterpillar (CAT).

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.