Out with the old, in with the Warsh way

Good Day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I'm here all week for once in a blue moon, so get used to seeing me in your inbox... HA! This past week the heat returned, after a week of moderate temps... We needed another rainstorm to move through! But we sure didn't need one on Father's Day like we did.... UGH! The Outlaws greet me this morning with their great song: Green Grass and High Tides...

Well, the FOMC met last week and I was gone after Wednesday's Pfennig, so this is my first attempt at trying to decipher what was said, as the FOMC left rates unchanged, but hinted that there will be future rate hikes... New Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Kevine Warsh, outlined a few things that will be different with his commandeering of the FOMC... 

Interesting though, he didn't talk about his wanting to change the way inflation is calculated, by using "trimmed averages" by doing that he'll remove the high rate and low rate and come out with an inflation rate that's more suitable for everyone... So, he thinks...

So, that's enough for now... let's head to the markets at the end of the week... The FOMC didn't move the Fed Funds rate, they left it unchanged. And that caused a major commotion with the dollar and Gold... The dollar ended the week at 1,217... That was quite the upward move after the rate announcement. And Gold finished the week at $4,176... Gold really got clobbered after the no move rate announcement. Silver also ended the week down to $65.38...

Just when Gold/Silver began to heal from its previous selling by the SPTs... But this time the SPTs were mixed in with the major holders of Gold/Silver selling too... I think that the mention of rates needing to go higher was the deep sixing of Gold/Silver... 

The week ended with the price of Oil at a $76 handle... Ok, the Peace Agreement had a curve ball thrown its way on Friday. The Peace signing that was supposed to happen in Switzerland, was cancelled... I knew in my head that this Peace Agreement was on tenterhooks, and in my heart of hearts I knew it was a mirage...

But there was no reversal of the damage, in the metals and currencies, that announcing a Peace Agreement caused... Hmmm... 

And the 10-year Treasury remained around 4.45%, no changing of the bond boys' minds here, they said that they'll want to see the actual rate hike take place and not just talk that it will... 

Remember when I told that a FOMC rate hike wasn't to fight inflation? It's really there to increase the short-term Treasuries... And last week the short-term Treasuries acted like there was a rate hike, and their yields jumped higher... 

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar was bought a bit more and the BBDXY starts today at 1,217.96... War = dollar strength, Gold weakness... There is no Peace folks... It was all a pipedream... The Strait is closed again and we're back to where we were 10 days ago... 

Gold/Silver starts the day/ week up... something's awry here, but I won't argue the fact that they are up while the war goes on... Gold is up $49 and Silver is up $1.55. So, there's that...  I would think the Central Banks are going to line up and buy Gold on the dips... Why shouldn't they? Why shouldn't you?  I read where Soc Gen was buying Gold on the dips... and soon others will join them, I would suspect... 

The price of Oil slipped further and starts the day trading with a $74 handle... I had a dream last night that I was an Oil trader, and a client asked me where I thought the price of Oil would bottom out... I remember him asking me that, but I don't recall the answer I gave him... UGH! I would think that I would have pointed the closing of the Strait by the Iranians and say that Gold should be supported from here... At least that's what I hope I told him in my dream!

The 10-year bumped higher and stars our day/week trading with a 4.49% yield... My statement above about the bond boys holds true here...

So... Kevin Warsh said "out with the old way of running the Fed, and with the new way, Kevin Warsh way"... And the markets kind of liked it... Change is good, and there are opportunities in Change, so the markets said, "Ok, we're with you, now, but slip up and we'll revolt"... 

However, the European Central Bank (ECB) member recently was quoted as saying, "Inflation in the eurozone is set to remain high despite the recent decline in energy prices." - WSJ

So, no matter how you calculate it, inflation is here to stay and it' going to cost us plenty now and in the future... 

My good friends, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden, still publish their weekly letter and in their weekly letter last week, they talked about how Gold had been in a "D decline" and was nearing the end of that, ahead of a nice rebound in Gold... They are technical folks and talk like that... When I used to write for them, I would add "pfodder"... But I left and there's no "pfodder" left... 

My good friend, Sean Hyman, is a technical guru, and I lean on him from time to time... We both used to write for the Sovereign Society, now those were interesting times... 

Ok, we're back now, I went off a transgression, and I'm sorry for that, but now we're back... 

The Bank of England (BOE) took their cue from the FOMC and left their internal rate unchanged at their meeting last week... the non-move didn't help pound sterling and a rate hike would have at least sort-of offset the dollar rampage higher... 

And look there... The Japanese yen traded over 161, nearing a multi-year low VS the dollar, and brought out the folks that believe that Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention will follow soon... Tsk, tsk, Tsk... The BOJ didn't learn a thing after its last round of intervention, only brought about short-term relief for the yen... I'll say it again, which I don't believe I need to, but will anyway... The Markets have deeper pockets than a Central Bank, and if the markets think the currency should be weaker, then weaker it shall be... 

The euro, the offset currency for the dollar, has sunk to trade with a 1.14 handle... That's how strong the dollar is right now... What's it going to take to get the dollar to back off? Cancelling the Peace Signing really lathered up the dollar bugs, so it's going to take something BIG... Like, slowing down the creation of money supply... But pigs will fly when lawmakers get around to that! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week was a dud, (in my mind) and this week will also be void of a slew of data reports... Today, we see the color of the May Industrial Production report and Capacity Utilization, and then there's nothing until Wednesday... 

 To recap... The dollar is on a rampage and is kicking tail and taking names later... The Peace Agreement signing was cancelled, Uh-Oh... The FOMC left rates unchanged but hinted that in the future we could see rate hikes, and those two items got the dollar bugs all lathered up and the BBDXY is soaring, while the currencies and Gold/Silver are getting sold down the river... 

For What It's Worth... Well, Gold has really been sold, but historically, has it? This article is interesting because it shows that on a time basis, the Gold selling doesn't look that bad...

Here's your snippet: "In his new letter this week, Myrmikan Capital's Dan Oliver examines the recent "correction" in the gold price and concludes that while it is jarring, it is barely visible on a long-term chart.

He writes: "We think that the financial system is more precarious than ever, not just the stock and bond markets but especially the sovereign debt markets. We expect that volatility will continue to increase; we think trading through that volatility will become increasingly difficult; and we think all realistic roads lead to a much higher gold price, which gives us the fortitude to ignore sharp dislocations in price."

Chuck Again... Good advice... Batten down the hatches and wait all this chaos out... Good advice, Dan... 

Market Prices 6/22/2026: American Style: A$ .7002, kiwi .5725, C$ .7059, euro 1.1455, sterling 1.3244, Swiss $1.2403, European Style: rand 16.4129, krone 9.6700, SEK 9.6014, forint 307.57, zloty 3.7255, koruna 21/1183, RUB 73.79, yen 161.78, sing 1.2932, HKD 7.8398, INR 94.67, China 6.7755, peso 17.33, BRL 5.1525, BBDXY 1,217, Dollar Index 100.93, Oil $74.95, 10-year 4.49%, Silver $66.50, Platinum $1,694.00, Palladium $1,296.00, Copper $6.44, and Gold... $4,208.

That's it for today... like I said above, I'm here all week, no dr appts. No tests, no excuses to not write... My beloved Cardinals went to play the Royals in KC this past weekend. And their bats came alive yesterday as they won 1 of 3 games there... UGH! Yesterday was Father's Day... I truly enjoyed my day, all 3 of my kids and 4 grandkids were here to celebrate. But we didn't get to celebrate outside with the rain... Did you have a great day? I recall when as a youth, I would watch my dad at the huge cinder block BBQ pit all day and we would listen to the Cardinals broadcast, and have great conversations... It was all so perfect in those days... Yes, takes us to the finish line today with their song: Owner of a Broken Heart... I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!