Analyzing select group of USD based pairs

Murali Sarma Trade Guidance, LLC

EUR/USD initially slipped on Friday but then rebounded, showing renewed strength after several days of weakness. With U.S. markets now past the holiday weekend, a bounce from the 1.1417 area was expected and appears to be holding into the Monday session. This could set up a modest recovery early in the week, provided there is no major deterioration in risk sentiment. However, there is a band of resistance from 1.15420~1.14945 which could stall any move to the upside if traders continue to weigh this with the ongoing negotiations in Switzerland between warring nations. For now, risk appetite may weigh on the U.S. dollar. The 1.16 level should continue to act as resistance, as it sits near the middle of the broader range and aligns with the 200-day EMA. Although the 50-day EMA is attempting to cross below it, the pair remains largely sideways. In this environment, short-term buyers may have the advantage. However, a break below 1.14 could open the door to a move toward 1.12.

Interest rates have fallen in both economies, largely offsetting one another and reinforcing the likelihood that EUR/USD remains within its yearlong range. Aside from occasional brief moves, the pair continues to trade between support near 1.14, where it bounced on Friday, and resistance around 1.15760, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies.

Here is our Playbook for the day session of Monday June 22, 2026 for the US trading session:

Author

Murali Sarma

Trade Guidance, LLC

Murali Sarma is a private investor and trader, dealing in currencies, commodities (grains, energies, metals, bonds, indices) and stocks.

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