Oil trades on stories

Good Day... And A Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, if you're a Red Sox fan, you're loving what you're seeing in Tampa Bay... And if you're a White Sox fan, you're coming home with a 2-0 lead, so you're happy and a Lark... You know, my fat fingers don't work to type without errors like they used to... I continually have to back up and correct something that I've already typed! UGH! Its bad enough that I walk with a cane, can't hear my wife (maybe that's not too bad) and I'm getting old... Now, I can't type like is used to! UGH! a-ha greets me this morning with their great 80's song: Take On Me.

On a sidebar... I don't know how the head singer of this group can hit those super high notes in this song.... He's amazing!

The dollar couldn't find anyone that wanted to buy it yesterday, so it's trading in the same clothes at yesterday at 1,223... Now, if only the weak underlying trend came back strongly... Then we'd be in tall cotton! The POTUS has opened his checkbook for the mid-terms, I wonder where he will find the cash to send out to voters? I guess the cash will simply be printed.. Oh boy, may I have another?

That's just what this country needs is for the FOMC to be hiking rates to combat inflation, while the Treasury prints more currency? I told you weeks ago that Bessent of the Treasury and Warsh of Fed/ Cabal/Cartel don't care for each other... This would really drive a wedge between the two... 

Gold / Silver was going along merrily when the STPs stepped up their short sales and brought the two metals back to negative for the day.... Gold was down $22 and finished the day at $4,140, and Silver was down 52-cents and finished the day at $61.43... I just don't get it... what would it hurt to have the precious metals close positive on the day? Apparently it means something to the SPTs  and they are pledged to uphold it!  

The price of Oil slid yesterday, as it is being reported that Arabian Oil is flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz... That's good news, but it leaves the Iranians in charge of who sails through and who doesn't... and they (the Iranians) have been quite touchy with this, and they could decide today to close it again... Maybe it's a good will thought that would keep the POTUS from ordering more Missiles and drones rain down on the Iranians..... Maybe, just Maybe... Cause you never know! (Andujar) 

The 10-year saw Fed Head buying bring the bond's yield down but, after they were finished the 10-year promptly saw its yield rise once again... This time the day ended with the 10-year's yield at 5.30%... The 10-year saw Sept. With the greatest yield movement ... on 9/1 the 10-year's yield was 4.79%... That's a .51% change in Sept... I recall that in the day when I was in the bond dept, seeing a .2 or .3 % move was special.. I wonder what bond depts are doing with a .7% move in a day?

In the overnight markets last night.... The dollar ran into another roadblock last night, and the BBDXY fell 3 index points to 1,220... The overnight markets have been cruel to the dollar, while here in the U.S. it just drifts throughout the day this week... Let's just hope that the overnight markets continue to chip away at the dollar's armor, because the dollar is so overbought that it would make the RSI invalid if the dollar remained at these levels.

Gold/Silver are on the positive side of the ledger this morning, but then, the were also on the positive side yesterday before the SPTs showed up... I have to say that my thinking of the history between Bond yields and Gold is not coming to fruition and I especially don't like saying, this time is different... But it is... And I think that the U.S. hitting $40 Trillion in current debt was the straw that broke the camel's back... The bond boys are saying no mas for debt, and if there is, which there's going to be you can bet your bottom dollar on that, they will continue to sell bonds and mark the yield higher.... While Gold holds on to $4,000.

The price of Oil is sliding away with the news that Oil is flowing again through the St. of Hormuz... The paper price of Oil continues to be manipulated and dependent of the news from the Gulf... I'm going on record now that the news is wrong, and tells a story of Oil flowing at rates that were present before the Iran / U.S. war began... I just don't see the Iranians giving up their trump card this easily... I'm just saying... 

The yield on the 10-year Treasury ran into some Fed Head buying and the yield fell back to 5.27%.

I think, in fact I know, that Globally Gov't debt has exceeded what was imaginable 10 years ago... France has some real problems right now and their Gov't yields are the highest they have been since 2002... I don't know what the Eurozone Leaders are going to do about France, but they have to do something because France was one of the big dogs on the Eurozone's porch and now they've been relegated to the yard... German Bond yields are actually going down, so the spread between Germany and France is growing wider and wider.

In the old days before the euro, I would look at this spread and tell the boys on the Trading Desk to look to sell French and buy German bonds... Spread it's what we always looked for.

Speaking of the euro... it has been battered about and still lives... It took a couple of days, but the Swiss franc is back above $1.20 VS the dollar... And the Swedish krona was getting sold and it was trading with a 10 handle, but no longer... The one currency that surprises me with its strength even when the dollar was so strong, is the Brazilian real... I think Brazil pays a decent coupon, so there's an option for you.

The U.S. Data Cupboard is supposed to print the Consumer Credit (read debt) for Aug.... I doubt seriously if it will print today, and probably one day this week under the cover of darkness.

To Recap... The dollar drifted about yesterday, and trades in the same clothes as yesterday... Gold & Silver were up during the early part of the day before the SPTs showed up at the COMEX with their arms full of short trades in the two.

Here's your snippet: "Tracking the Shadow Gold Trade

When investor demand sent gold prices to all-time highs this year, Africans rushed to cash in.

Exports hit records in multiple countries — sometimes doubling or tripling in value, according to trade data analyzed by Bloomberg.

But many of those nations have barely any gold to mine.

What some have in common are neighbors embroiled in conflict where gold smuggling is supporting some of the worst wars on earth — like Sudan and Democratic Republic of Congo."

The main destination for that bullion is the United Arab Emirates, a Bloomberg investigation found.

One refiner alone in Uganda was responsible for almost half the value of the nation’s shipments, which reached more than $8 billion in the 12 months through June.

Its supply chain mirrored parts of a network previously run by Belgian gold trader Alain Goetz, who was sanctioned by the US government in 2022 for trading gold out of war-torn eastern Congo.

Goetz denies any role or knowledge of the business, and Bloomberg found no public document showing he personally controls the company or directs its post-sanctions trades.

But the seeming resilience of the system shows how difficult it has been to sever conflict-linked precious metals from the global market, especially once it reaches the UAE, one of the world’s biggest bullion hubs.

The Gulf country’s wealth and growing clout as a geopolitical dealmaker and financial center have complicated any attempt to sanction companies doing business there, a former US sanctions official says.

The UAE told Bloomberg the nation’s regulatory framework complies — and in some cases exceeds — OECD guidelines on responsible sourcing, and that rules extend to refiners, recyclers and trading companies.

Still, the gold from Africa keeps flowing — reaching $99 billion last year."

Chuck Again... this is crazy... I don't have any Gold so I'll steal it from my neighbor and then ship it as my own... I guess they have their own rules in Africa eh?

Market Prices 10/6/2026: American Style: A$ 6976, kiwi .5611, C$ .7010, euro 1.1256, sterling 1.3256, Swiss $1.2040, European Style: rand 16.5323, krone 9.5783, SEK 9.9966, forint 324.60, zloty 3.8806, koruna 21.6916,  RUB 85.58, yen 158.84, sing 1.2779, HKD 7.8479, INR 96.42, China 6.7064,   peso 18.01, BRL 4.9931, BBDXY 1,220, Dollar Index 101.95, Oil $87.88, 10-year 5.27%, Silver $61.50, Platinum $1,719.00, Palladium $1,189.00,  Copper $6.63, and Gold... $4,165.

That's it for today... Ok, I got my days all mixed up, it's tomorrow that I am having lunch with my classmates... I have no idea why I thought it was yesterday... So, there's another notch in my old man belt.... Then next Thursday I'll be out of pocket as I go to see my oncologist and get a treatment... I didn't get one last month because I was so sick... So, here we go again... It's been nice not dealing with the effects of a treatment... I watched Baseball last night and not Football, I guess that tells what sport I prefer... The Kinks take us to the finish line today with their song; All of The Day and All of the Night... I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!