|

Oil just hit four-year lows – Here’s why you’ll wish you bought the dip [Video]

Another week and another highly anticipated money making opportunity. That’s one of the most lucrative trends of the current financial climate that we find ourselves in right now.

Crude Oil has entered correction territory. Both Brent and WTI prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2020, down more than 18% in just four weeks. Fears of recession, global trade wars, retaliatory tariffs and OPEC+’s modest output increase have driven headlines – but beneath the surface, a different story is unfolding.

This isn’t a structural breakdown. It’s the biggest buying opportunity of 2025.

China – the world’s largest Oil importer is capitalizing on every dip. Last month, China’s Crude Oil purchases rose to 12.11 million barrels a day – a 5% increase from the same month a year ago. This marks the third consecutive month of rising imports, driven by a rebound in domestic travel and industrial production. China has also added an estimated 250 million barrels to its strategic reserves over the past 12 months, according to proprietary data tracked by GSC Commodity Intelligence.

In the United States, the summer driving season – historically a strong demand driver – is around the corner. This year’s driving season is expected to push Gasoline demand close to 9.4 million bpd. Meanwhile, jet fuel consumption is also accelerating, with passenger air traffic rising 8.9% year-on-year in April.

These forces are quietly aligning behind the scenes – positioning the market for a major shift. And that shift could be triggered by a single buyer: President Trump’s U.S government.

In his January 2025 inaugural address, President Trump pledged to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) “right to the top”, after it fell to 346.8 million barrels – its lowest since 1983.

Now with the SPR sitting at its lowest level in over 40 years and Oil prices back at multi-year lows – Trump has a unique opportunity to buy cheap Oil, restore energy security and support domestic producers – all while anchoring a price floor.

Simultaneously, Trump’s broader economic agenda, includes bold plans to transform America into a “Massive Manufacturing Hub”.

Powering that resurgence will require more than just an ideology – it will require Oil and a lot of it!

Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the Oil market is pricing in virtually no risk premium.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which 21% of global Oil flows daily, remains vulnerable. Even a brief disruption there – or in another key producing region – could rapidly send Crude Oil prices surging $10, $20 or even $30 higher – virtually overnight.

According to analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence – “Corrections of this magnitude are rare – but historically, they have been launch pads for major rallies. In 2016, 2020 and again in 2022, similar sharp corrections in Oil prices were followed by rallies of 30% to 50% within six months.”

If history is anything to go by, then Crude Oil now offers one of the most compelling risk-reward setups of the year. With supply tight, geopolitical risk unpriced and government buyers poised to act – Oil may be the biggest buying opportunity of 2025!

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

Author

Phil Carr

Phil Carr

The Gold & Silver Club

Phil is the co-founder and Head of Trading at The Gold & Silver Club, an international Commodities Trading Firm specializing in Metals, Energies and Soft Commodities.

More from Phil Carr
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD flat lines near 1.1800 as traders brace for US PPI release

The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note near 1.1800 during the early Asian session on Friday. The pair steadies as softer Eurozone inflation offsets US tariff uncertainties. Traders await the preliminary reading of the Consumer Price Index from Germany on Friday for more clues about the pace of future policy easing. On the US front, the Producer Price Index report will be released. 

GBP/USD threatens the 200-day SMA near 1.3440

GBP/USD rapidly leaves behind Wednesday’s strong advance, coming under heavy pressure and retesting the 1.3440 zone, where the critical 200-day SMA is located. Cable’s deep pullback follows the strong gains in the Greenback, while investors continue to pencil in a potential BoE rate cut in March.

Gold remains below $5,200 despite tariff jitters and geopolitical risks

Gold is seen consolidating in a range below the $5,200 mark during the Asian session on Friday amid mixed cues. Trade jitters, along with the risk of a potential US-Iran war, act as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion. Meanwhile, the Fed's hawkish outlook keeps the US Dollar close to the monthly high and caps the non-yielding yellow metal. Nevertheless, the commodity remains on track to register gains for the fourth straight week, though the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for bullish traders.

Top Crypto Gainers: Stable and Decred rally, Pippin approaches record highs

Altcoins, such as Stable, Decred, and Pippin, are extending gains so far this week, defying the risk-averse conditions in the broader cryptocurrency market. Stable and Pippin are near record high levels, while Decred extends its breakout rally above $30.

Changing the game: International implications of recent tariff developments

The Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs provides limited relief for the rest of the world, with weighted average tariff rates modestly lower.

Bitcoin steadies as traders eye US–Iran talks

Bitcoin (BTC) price is stabilizing around $68,000 at the time of writing on Thursday after a 6.2% relief rally the previous day amid a broader downward trend.