NZ Dollar soars after central bank slashes rates

Kenny Fisher MarketPulse

The New Zealand dollar has ended a five-day losing streak on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5887, up 0.9% on the day.

RBNZ chops rates by 50 basis points

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its cash rate by 50 basis points today in a widely-expected decision. This brings the cash rate to 4.25%, its lowest level since November 2022. This marked a second straight cut of 50 basis points, as the central bank is showing an aggressive stance to cutting rates.

The rate statement noted that inflation had fallen around the midpoint of the 1%-3% target and if economic conditions evolved as expected, the Bank expected to lower rates early in 2025. Governor Orr echoed this stance in his press conference, as he hinted at another 50-bp rate cut as early as February.

What is suprising is the reaction of the New Zealand dollar, which has surged higher despite the oversized rate cut and the signal of more to come. The RBNZ lowered rates by 50 bp last month and the New Zealand dollar responded with losses of around 1%. This time around, investors may be focusing on the expected positive impact that the rate cut should have on the weak New Zealand economy. As well, some investors had expected a 75-bp cut at today’s meeting and the smaller cut may have boosted the New Zealand dollar.

FOMC minutes: More rate cuts coming

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the November meeting on Tuesday. At the meeting, FOMC members unanimously voted to cut rates by 25 basis points. The minutes indicated that Fed officials were confident that inflation was falling and the labor market remained strong. Given, this positive outlook, members expected to lower interest rates but no timeline was provided.

NZD/USD technical

NZD/USD pushed above resistance at 0.5868 and tested resistance at 0.5901 earlier. The next resistance line is 0.5937. There is support at 0.5832 and 0.5799

Author

Kenny Fisher

MarketPulse

A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities.

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