This is not a correlated market. The USD is Down and Crude is Up which is normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Up. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded mainly Higher in the overnight session with the exception of the Shanghai exchange. Currently all of Europe is trading Higher.

Possible challenges to traders

FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 6:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Challenger Job Cuts y/y is out at 730 AM EST. This is Major.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is out at 8:15 AM EST. This is Major.
Unemployment Claims are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Trade Balance is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Final Services PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is Major.
ISM Services PMI is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major.
Factory Orders m/m is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major.
Crude Oil Inventories are out at 10:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Natural Gas Storage is out at 12 Noon. This is Major.
FOMC Meeting Minutes is out at 2 PM EST. This is Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 year (ZN) to the 2 year (ZT). They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 10-year Treasury notes (ZN) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT migrated Lower at around 8:45 AM EST. If you look at the charts below the ZT gave a signal at around 8:45 AM and started its Downward slide. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow moved Higher at around 8:45 AM and the ZT moved Lower at around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of BarCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $7.625. Please note: the front month for ZT is Sept and the Dow is now Sept '24. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of Barcharts

ZT -Sept 2024 - 07/02/24

Dow - Sept 2024 - 07/02/24

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Downside bias as it was correlated to the Downside Tuesday morning. The markets however had other ideas as the indices closed Higher Tuesday. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday the markets were correlated to the Downside, but a funny thing happened. Fed Chair Powell started speaking at 9:30 AM as soon as the markets opened. He spoke about disinflation meaning that he thinks (or believes) that prices will revert to what they were or go Lower. That is very positive news, and the markets took off with it. Whether or not that happens is yet to be seen. Today we have about 10 economic reports, all of which are major and of course, it's before a major holiday. Whereas the markets will be closed tomorrow for the Fourth of July, they will be open on Friday the 5th. We'll also have Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday as well.

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

EUR/USD extends its optimism past 1.1900

EUR/USD retains a firm underlying bid, surpassing the 1.1900 mark as the NA session draws to a close on Monday. The pair’s persistent uptrend comes as the US Dollar remains on the defensive, with traders staying cautious ahead of upcoming US NFP prints and CPI data.

GBP/USD hits three-day peaks, targets 1.3700

GBP/USD is clocking decent gains at the start of the week, advancing to three-day highs near 1.3670 and building on Friday’s solid performance. The better tone in the British Pound comes on the back of the intense sekk-off in the Greenback and despite re-emerging signs of a fresh government crisis in the UK.

Gold picks up pace, retargets $5,100

Gold gathers fresh steam, challenging daily highs en route to the $5,100 mark per troy ounce in the latter part of Monday’s session. The precious metal finds support from fresh signs of continued buying by the PBoC, while expectations that the Fed could lean more dovish also collaborate with the uptick.

XRP struggles around $1.40 despite institutional inflows

Ripple (XRP) is extending its intraday decline to around $1.40 at the time of writing on Monday amid growing pressure from the retail market and risk-off sentiment that continues to keep investors on the sidelines.

Japanese PM Takaichi nabs unprecedented victory – US data eyed this week

I do not think I would be exaggerating to say that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap general election gamble paid off over the weekend – and then some. This secured the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) an unprecedented mandate just three months into her tenure.