NFP Quick Analysis: Mixed data keeps the USD patient like the Fed, but watch 3 other things

Both jobs and wages were mixed in the first report for 2019.
The confusing data justify a patient approach by the Fed.
The US Dollar may follow the Fed's lead and remain patient.

Three mixed messages:

1) Headline The US economy gained 304,000 Non-Farm jobs in January, far above 165K expected or any "whisper" expectations stemming from the upbeat ADP NFP earlier this week. However, it came on top fo a whopping downward revision from 312K to 222K for December, no less than 90K, taking the oomph out of the headline.

2) Wages: Average Hourly Earnings also provided a mixed picture: 0.1% MoM against 0.3% expected while YoY, the figure met the forecast with 3.2%.

3) Unemployment rate: Last but not least, the unemployment rate disappointed with a rise to 4% but it came on top a welcome increase in the participation rate to 63.2%.

All in all, the US labor market is doing well, but nothing we had not known. Without any heating up in wages, inflation is not expected to surge anytime soon. The Fed can take its sweet time and remain patient.

The same goes for the US Dollar: more patience until more figures come out and paint a clearer picture.

But other things can shake the currency.

Three things that can move the greenback

1) Trade: US-Chinese trade talks are making progress but can they strike a deal? A lot depends on the leaders.

2) Fed comments: The Fed said its word in the rate decision, but speakers can add more color in upcoming weeks.

3) Shutdown: The government is open again, but may close again on February 15th. A critical data point was not published: Q4 GDP. Developments related to the event may move markets.

Share: Analysis feed

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.