Nasdaq FUTs meander near the Asia highs amid mixed tech news flow

Asia market update: Nasdaq FUTs meander near the Asia highs amid mixed tech news flow; Nov RBA rate hike bets rise on hawkish Hauser comments ahead of key CPI data [Oct 28th]; Bessent talked up UST demand pre 20-year auction results; Tricky CB decisions seen in ID and KR; META and Tesla report post NY close.

General trends and developments

- Cautious Nasdaq FUTs gains seen as traders assess positive and negative tech news; The continuing volatility also cannot be ignored. Upcoming focal points include earnings from META [Nasdaq FUTs opens +0.8% at 29,925 (v 29,675 prior); S&P 500 FUTs opens +0.4% at 7,785 (v 7,755 prior); WTI Crude FUTs opens +0.5% at $98.33/bbl (v $97.82/bbl prior)].

- Positive tech-related headlines have circulated regarding SpaceX, Super Micro Computer and Elice Group.

- SpaceX shares rose by >8% in afterhours trading as the co. reported better quarterly results and guidance. The company’s CFO also emphasized capital discipline amid the current AI-credit environment. [Reports Q3 $0.35 v $0.11e, Rev $14.6B v $12.6Be; Guides ARR $500B to $1.0T by end of 2027; Guides Q1 Rev $33-37B v $23.4Be; Both SpaceX and Tesla have special committees to discuss merger; Merger is not a certainty, shareholders have to support it; Guides Q1 2027 revenue of $33–37B, supported by improved visibility into the next six months’ compute contracts; remains on track for $100B exit-2026 ARR, defined as December revenue annualized. Musk outlined a much more ambitious $500B–$1T exit-2027 ARR expectation].

- Super Micro Computer [SMCI] gained >15% in extended trading on prelim quarterly results. The firm, however, did not comment on profitability. [Reports prelim Q1 Rev $18.5-19.5B v $14.8Be, gross margins 12-12.5% v 10.5%e; Cites increased demand for AI platforms].

- South Korean data center firm Elice has seen its shares rebound by more than 25% after dropping by >30% in Tuesday’s debut. Apparently, the company’s CEO is still bullish and unconcerned by the recent market volatility. Elice will 'double' revenue this year ' at a minimum, according to its CEO.

- South Korea’s Oct 1-20th chip export growth accelerated to 222.5% y/y [vs. +170.9% during Oct 1-10th].

- Mainland Chinese data center plays have also gained. China said to have established a ‘group’ aimed at fostering technological development [Press]
-Even still, the tech news flow remains mixed.

- Anthropic's H1 $80.7B net loss was reportedly driven by accounting charges ($72B) as the firm could spend $750B on obtaining computing capacity [WSJ citing a draft of the co’s S-1].

- Big Aussie data center NEXTDC has seen both its equity and bond prices collapse after it disclosed a profit warning. The revision primarily reflects delays to electricity network works by Jemena Electricity Networks. Jemena has attributed the suspension to community and stakeholder opposition to the works and to the absence of local council consent pending further consultation. Meanwhile, Nvidia is said to be in talks to raise its investment in Australian GPU cloud provider Firmus. Earlier in Oct, market conditions had forced Firmus to cancel its Australian IPO.

- Taiwan export order growth slow during Sept vs Aug [TAIWAN SEPT EXPORT ORDERS Y/Y: 62.4% V 61.7%E].

- Japan’s export growth slowed to a 4-month low during Sept and missed ests. Shipments to China saw a sharp slowdown, while export growth to the US also slowed during the month [Exports to China Y/Y: +8.6% v +20.6% prior; Exports to US Y/Y: +22.9% v +24.9% prior].

- BOJ Dep Gov Himino affirmed a delay in adjusting policy could materialize inflation risks and [thus] hurt [the] economy. The influential central banker also confirmed Japan’s price trend is very close to the 2% target, inline with recent press reports. Recall when Himino spoke in late Aug [27th] he stated it was desirable to a avoid situation where a delay in rate hike leads to sharp inflation and [thus] requires rapid rate hikes thereafter.

- Australia 3-yr bond yields rise on hawkish Hauser comments, curve flattens: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser indicated that Australia’s inflation outlook had worsened compared with the RBA’s August forecasts, with Q3 CPI and quarterly trimmed mean inflation expected to come in higher than previously anticipated. Hauser added that the RBA is still finalizing its forecasts and that it is too early to determine the Board’s next policy decision, stating that the monetary policy cannot deal with the Australian supply shocks [inline comments]. The next RBA Board meeting and official cash rate announcement will be on the 3rd November 2026, with the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures November 2026 contract trading at 95.35, indicating a 22% expectation of a +25bps interest rate increase to 4.85% on the 20th October 2026.

- The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) scheduled Wednesday evening EDT October 21st rate decision is widely expected to maintain its benchmark policy rate at Wednesday’s decision, with Polymarket pricing the outcome at 98.8%. At its previous decision on August 18th, BoK raised its repo rate by +25bps to 3.00%, marking its second consecutive hike and bringing cumulative tightening under the current cycle to 50bps. Meanwhile, BoK maintained its CPI inflation forecasts at 2.7% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027, while raising its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.3% (vs. 2.6% prior) and its 2027 GDP growth forecast to 2.9% (vs. 2.1% prior).

- US equity FUTs +#% to +#% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using EST/EDT time-zone)

- Sun Oct 18th: NZ Sept Trade Balance, (Sun night, CN Q3 GDP, CN Sept Industrial Production & Retail Sales & Unemployment Rate, CN NBS Press Conference).

- Mon Oct 19th: CN Sept FDI, CA Sept CPI & Core CPI, (Mon night, CN PBoC 1-Year & 5-Year Loan Prime Rate Settings, DE Sept PPI).

- Tue Oct 20th: US Sept Prelim Building Permits & Pending Home Sales, KR Sept PPI, (JP Sept Trade Balance, UK CPI & Core CPI, ID BI Interest Rate Decision).

- Wed Oct 21st: IN RBI Oct 5-7th Meeting Minutes, RU Sept PPI, US 20-Year Bond Auction, NZ Q3 CPI, (Wed night, KR BoK Interest Rate Decision, PH BSP Interest Rate Decision, HK Sept CPI, HK Sept Unemployment Rate).

- Thu Oct 22nd: EU Oct Preliminary Consumer Confidence, (Thu night, AU/JP/IN Oct Preliminary S&P/HCOB Mnfg/Svcs PMI, JP Sept National CPI & Core CPI, ID Sept M2 Money Supply, SG Sept CPI & Core CPI, TW Sept Industrial Production & Unemployment Rate, TW M2 & M3 Money Supply, EU Sept Car Registrations).

- Fri Oct 23rd: EU Preliminary Oct HCOB Mnfg/Svcs/Composite PMI, RU CBR Interest Rate Decision, US Preliminary Oct S&P Mnfg/Svcs/Composite PMI.

Holidays in Asia this week

-Mon Oct 19th: Hong Kong.

-Tue Oct 20th: India.

-Fri Oct 23rd: Thailand.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 Index opens +0.2% at 8,835.

-(AU) RBA Deputy Gov Hauser: Inflation outlook looks worse than forecasted in August, a bit above expectations; Inflation has been high for a very long time; Still finalizing forecasts, don't know for sure what board will decide - Fireside chat by Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor at Citi’s Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference, Sydney.

-(AU) Goldman Sachs now expects RBA to hike by +25bps to 4.85%; had previously expected a hold in November's meeting; notes 'clearly hawkish' comments from RBA Dep Gov Hauser.

-(AU) Australia sells A$1.0B v A$1.0B indicated in 4.25% Oct 2036 Bonds: Avg Yield 5.2545% v 5.3802% prior: bid-to-cover: 3.63x v 4.51x prior.

-(AU) NXT.AU Cuts FY27 (A$) Underlying EBITDA 245-265M, Net Rev 475-500M; Capex at 4.5-5.0B (prior: Underlying EBITDA 385-410M, Net Rev 615-640M; Capex at 5.25-5.75B).

-(AU) NXT.AU Follow-up: Shares fall -44% following outlook cut on data center power delay.

-(AU) NXT.AU Follow-up: CEO: NextDC considering moving M3 power capacity to other sites. NextDC considering underground cables, other connections to M3.

-(AU) NVDA moves to back Australian AI cloud provider Firmus in discussions to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Firmus - The Information.

-(AU) Australia sells A$1.0B v A$1.0B indicated in 4.25% Oct 2036 Bonds: Avg Yield 5.2545% v 5.3802% prior: bid-to-cover: 3.63x v 4.51x prior.

-(AU) ASB.AU Australian government to invest A$285M in Austal facilities.

China/Hong Kong

-(CN) Shanghai Composite Index opens +0.1% at 3,7412; (HK) Hang Seng Index opens +1.1% at 24,139.

-(CN) China Sept Youth Unemployment Rates.

-(CN) China Sept Total Power Consumption Y/Y: +1.2%; YTD +3.9% y/y - NEA.

-(CN) CAICT: China Sept Smartphone Shipments Y/Y: -22.9%.

-(CN) Follow up: China Fin Min Lan Fo'an: APEC had candid, in-depth talks. Meeting reached consensus on strengthening communication, coordination of macro economic policies. APEC finance ministers' meeting approved and issued a joint statement on enhancing cooperation on digital financing infrastructure.

-(CN) PBOC Shanghai to back Yuan in global corporate cash management - Press.

-(CN) China said to upgrade central bank-side digital yuan infrastructure - Xinhua.

-(CN) China said to have established a ‘group’ aimed at fostering technological development – Press [update].

-(CN) China sells 7-year additional bonds; Avg Yield: 1.4241% v 1.490% prior; China sells 3-month bills; Avg Yield: 1.1222% v 1.133% prior.

-(CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7192 v 6.7200 prior (strongest level since February 2nd 2023).

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY80B in 1-day Overnight Reverse Repo and 7-day Reverse Repos; Net injects CNY24B v drains CNY65B prior.

-(CN) DEEPSEEK.IPO China Commerce Ministry opposes US Deepseek order and will take necessary measures to defend interests; Action disregards consensus reached between heads of state [EU market close].

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 Index opens +1.2% at 64,782.

-(JP) Japan Sept trade balance: -¥536.6B V -¥210.4BE.

- (JP) BOJ Deputy Gov Himino: Underlying inflation is quite close to BoJ's 2% target. Delay in adjusting policy could materialize inflation risks, hurt economy - Parliamentary Comments.

-(JP) BOJ to determine whether inflation has reached 2% target at the upcoming Oct meeting [inline] - Kyodo.

-(JP) Japan Fin Min Katayama: Reiterates government communicating closely with BoJ, see no big view between the two on inflation outlook, policy.

-(JP) Former BoJ Executive Director Maeda: BoJ likely to keep hiking rates every quarter.

-(JP) Japan PM Takaichi: Many people still don't feel fruits of price measures - Parliament.

-(JP) Japan Government in Parliament considers winter electricity, gas subsidies; the measures would be effective for Jan-March which is the peak season - Kyodo.

-(JP) Japan, Russia officials met on Tuesday on various current issues - US financial press.

-(JP) BOJ Dep Gov Himino is scheduled to appear in parliament from 1:00 PM local time [4 GMT].

-(JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Results related to today's outright bond buying operations.

-(JP) BOJ Outright Bond Purchase Operation for 1~3 Years; 5~10 Years and >25 Years Bonds (Inline with planned amounts for Q4, 2026).

-(JP) 9984.JP Softbank-backed DayOne data centers to consider options for US IPO.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi Index opens +2.1% at 5,670.

-(KR) South Korea Sept PPI Y/Y: 7.7% v 7.9% prior.

-(KR) South Korea Oct 1-20 Days Exports Y/Y: 105.4% v 78.3% prior; Imports Y/Y: 42.8% v 26.7% prior; Chip Exports Y/Y: +222.5% y/y.

-(KR) South Korea President Lee: Government preparing to cut mandatory domestic fuel supply volumes, allow refiners to boost exports.

-(KR) Korea Exchange activates sidecar on Kospi following Kospi 200 FUTs rising by +5%, programme trading halted for five-minutes.

-(KR) South Korea asks banks to avoid competitive bond issuance - Daily.

-(KR) Follow-up: South Korea denies asking banks to avoid aggressive bond issuance.

-(KR) Bank of Korea (BoK) sells KRW800B vs. KRW800B indicated in 3-year bonds; Avg Yield: 3.88%, bid-to-cover: x.

-(KR) 000660.KR Samsung, SK Hynix upgrading China plants to make more advanced chips - US financial press [Exclusive].

-(KR) 0158S0.KR Follow-up: South Korea data-center firm Elice rises +16% at the Kospi open following -32% decline at its IPO debut.

Other Asia

-(ID) Indonesia's benchmark stock index rises by +0.6% to 5,310.85 at the 10:00am open.

-(ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI): To move up the time for today's rate decision to 13:30 local time [6:30 GMT]; cites the need to accommodate the schedule of the BI Gov.

-(ID) Indonesia Wealth Fund Danantara CIO seeks another $1B multi-currency loan.

-(PH) Philippines Peso weakens to record low of 63.167/USD.

-(SG) Singapore updates outdoor work guidelines over haze: Singapore urges firms to keep one-week mask supply on hand.

-(TH) Thailand sells total THB38B vs. THB38B indicated in 2031 and 2050 bonds.

-(TW) 2330.TW Three deaths reported following accident at steel structure at the co's Kaohsiung operations; operations at P4 steel structure hoisting have been suspended, according to the Commercial Times; a later released press report said the death toll rose to 4 [update].

North America

- (US) US Envoy Witkoff to present Russia President Putin with peace proposal after talks with Ukraine President Zelensky - Axios.

-(US) Treasury Sec Bessent: Bond auctions have been strong recently; Don't see any spillover from France; Not seeking another job, here for duration - media interview [US market close].

-(US) President Trump: Pentagon will invest $1.5B to produce semi-conductor chips in North Carolina - The President holds a political rally in Greenville [Pre-Credentialed Media], Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC.

-(US) Sec of State Rubio: US didn't have foreknowledge on Ukraine, Starlink. Trump has nothing to do with Musk, Starlink decisions. - comments from India.

-(US) SEPT HOUSING STARTS: 1.221M V 1.305ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.400M V 1.385ME [US market close].

-(US) ADP Preliminary Employment Change for 4-weeks ending Oct 3rd: +18.5K v +26.0K prior [US market close].

-(US) Oct Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: -23.6 v -22.0 prior [US market close].

-(US) Reportedly Trump Admin to offer Putin in-person trilateral meeting with Trump and Zelenskiy - Politico [US market close].

-(US) Sec of State Rubio: There is no political directive to harm Ukraine; Concerned about strikes on Black Sea shipping [US market close].

-(US) Energy Sec Wright: There's still 'more to do' on refining and defense production act funding [US market close].

-(US) US Envoy Witkoff to arrive in St. Petersburg for talks with Russia President Putin will be met by Russian Special Envoy Dmitriev - Sources.

-(US) US Ambassador to Japan George Glass condemns Russia over detention of Japan reporter - post on X.

-(US) Transportation Sec Duffy: The US can work to get aircraft to market more quickly.

-(US) Secretary of State Rubio to meet India's Gauta Adani and Tata Group CEO in Mumbai at 8:30am and 9:00am respectively [local time].

-(US) GM Reports Q3 $3.70 v $3.55e, Rev $50.0B v $48.2Be; Expects FY26 EV losses improve by $1.0-1.5B [US market close].

-(US) GM Authorizes new $20B multi-year share buyback; For FY26, we are on track to approach $7.5B in margin-accretive deferred revenue from software and services - shareholder letter [US market close].

-(US) SPCX Reports Q3 $0.35 v $0.11e, Rev $14.6B v $12.6Be.

-(US) TSLA Elon Musk confirms both Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees to consider a merger; Merger is not a certainty, has to have shareholder support - SpaceX earnings call.

-(US) NFLX Reports Q3 $0.87 v $0.82e, Rev $12.9B v $12.9Be; Guides Q4 light [US market close].

-(US) MMM Reports Q3 $2.50 adj v $2.41e, Adj Rev $6.6B v $6.61Be [US market close].

-(US) GE Reports Q3 $2.25 v $2.02e, Adj Rev $13.3B v $12.7Be; Raises FY26 outlook; Sees initial FY27 commercial services up LSD [US market close].

-(US) ANTHROPIC.IPO Anthropic's H1 $80.7B net loss was reportedly driven by accounting charges ($72B), Rev $16.3B v $1.1B y/y; Could spend $750B on obtaining computing capacity; Bulk of cloud compute deals are noncancelable - WSJ citing S-1 draft [US market close].

-(US) MSFT PE firms weighed $100B+ buyout of Microsoft’s Xbox gaming unit - The Information.

-(US) OPENAI.IPO Reports two agents disabled misalignment monitors; To probe whether models evade misalignment monitoring.

-(MX) US and Mexico trade talks said to hit 'impasse' as US Commerce Sec Lutnick continues to exert his 'influence' as steel and aluminum issues have again been cited [similar report circulated on Oct 15th] - US financial press.

-(CO) Colombia Finance Ministry: Colombia to receive IMF, World Bank mission for debt management - post on X.

-(CO) Colombia budget may have failed on procedural error - Semana.

Europe

-(EU) IEA Chief Birol: Will consider releasing more oil from emergency stocks if needed [EU market close].

-(EU) ECB's Lane (Ireland, chief economist): Greater global Euro use may help ECB control prices - panel comments.

-(HU) Hungary central bank (MNB) leaves base rate unchanged at 5.50%; as expected [EU market close].

-(UK) BOE’s Greene (hawkish dissenter): The risk of second-round inflation effects is greater than we thought; Forward-looking data point to pay growth closer to 3.5% [EU market close].

-(PT) Portugal Sept PPI M/M: 1.5% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 9.2% v 7.1% prior [EU market close].

-(FR) CA.FR Reports Q3 Rev €22.70B v €22.6B y/y; Cuts outlook citing the unrest in France [EU market close].

-(FR) ML.FR 9M Rev €19.2B v €19.3B y/y; Affirms FY26 guidance [EU market close].

-(FR) ADS.FR prelim Q3 Rev €7.25B v €6.63B y/y; Raises Op outlook [EU market close].

Middle East

-(IR) Social media reports citing Israeli press say a new Pakistani proposal has received US approval and preliminary acceptance from Iran [EU market close].

-(IR) Iran and US talks reportedly continue, but reports on a deal being close are 'wrong' - US press citing diplomat [EU market close].

-(SA) UK to support Saudi with RAF; to fly missions to defend Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks - financial press [EU market close].

-(SA) Saudi-led Coalition Spokesperson: Intercepts 4 drones launched towards Saudi Arabia.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 +#%; ASX 200 +#%; Hang Seng +#%; Shanghai Composite +#%; Kospi +#%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +#%; Nasdaq100 +#%; DAX +#%; FTSE100+#%.

EUR #-#; JPY #-#; AUD #-#; NZD #-#.

Gold +#% at $#/oz; BTC +#% at $#; WTI Crude Oil +#% at $#/bbl; Copper +#% at $#/lbs.