Morning briefing: The US treasury yields remain higher and stable

Weaker-than-expected US ISM at 47.90 (48.30) and comments from a Fed official indicating that unemployment could rise further led to a decline in the Dollar Index. The Dollar Index can trade within 98.85-97.75 region for a while. EURUSD has risen above 1.17 again but faces immediate resistance between 1.1750-1.1800. EURINR is trading within 105-106.25 region. EURJPY & USDJPY continues to hold the 183-185 & 158-154 range respectively for now. USDCNY can fall towards 6.95 or even further in the near term. Aussie & Pound have bounced well and if sustained, can test 0.68 & 1.36/365 respectively in the near term. USDINR has risen well so far and has a scope to move towards 90.50 or slightly higher while it trades above 90.00. IN Services PMI is scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields remain higher and stable. The bias on the 30Yr is bullish. That can aid the 10Yr also to breach its resistance and go higher in the coming days. The Germany Yields have come down. The resistance has held very well. Failure to bounce back can drag the yields down in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has risen well. The outlook is bullish. The GoI can rise more going forward.

Most indices look bullish and are nearing our earlier mentioned targets. The Dow is headed towards 49000-49500 while the Dax is moving towards resistance near 25000. Nifty could rise to 26500 while above 26100-26000. Nikkei and Shanghai have surged well and could test 54000 and 4100 sooner than expected.

Crude prices have risen on geopolitical tensions but can remain range-bound between $62–$58 (Brent) and $59–$55 (WTI). Gold is inching higher and can move towards $4500–$4600. Silver has surged and may rise further to $79–$80. Copper jumped on US stockpiling concerns and a break above $6 can take it to $6.10–$6.20. Natural gas is testing support near $3.40, with scope to rebound towards $3.60–$3.80.