Morning briefing: The US jobs data will not be released

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index faces resistance at 98.30 and 99 region, below which the range of 99-97/96 is likely to persist for some time. The Euro can target 1.18/19 while above 1.17, while EURINR can consolidate between 103.50-105.00 region. EURJPY needs to sustain above current levels to extend the rise to 174/75 as well. Similarly, on a breach past 148 USDJPY can head towards 150 and higher levels in the near term. USDCNY is closed for the week. Aussie has a scope to test 0.670-0.675 before getting peaked out, while Pound needs to breach 1.35 to open the doors for higher levels in the near term. USDINR remained closed yesterday. US NFP, US Unemployment & US Avg Hrly data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have come down and are at their support. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them further lower. The US jobs data will not be released today following the government shutdown. The German Yields remain lower and are at their support. They look vulnerable to break the support and fall more. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply. They can dip further to test its immediate support. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if it is managing to bounce back or not.

The Dow has broken above immediate resistance at 46500 and if sustained, could head towards 47000 or higher. The Dax has also moved up well and can test 24500-24600 soon. The Nifty has risen, holding above 24600 and can test 25000 in the next few days. The Nikkei has risen sharply and could now be headed towards 46000-47000. Shanghai is likely to trade within 3800-3900 for the near term. A break above 3900, if seen can be bullish towards 4000.

Crude prices have broken below key supports, with Brent slipping to $64 and likely heading towards $63-62, while WTI fell to $60.40 and could extend losses towards $59-58. Gold remains firm after hitting $3,923.30 and is poised to rise towards $3,950-4,000, whereas Silver reversed sharply from $48 to $45.71 and may dip to $45 before resuming its uptrend towards $47.50-48.50. Copper has gained strength above $4.90 and now targets $5.00-5.20, while Natural Gas has surged past expectations to $3.5850 and could extend higher towards $3.65-3.80.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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