Morning briefing: The Euro needs to see a break

The Dollar Index and the Euro needs to see a break on the either side of their respective ranges of 102-100 and 1.11-1.13. EURINR has immediate resistance at 96, break past which will be needed to rise further. EURJPY and USDJPY can towards 161-160 and 145-144 respectively before rising back. AUDUSD can trade within the range of 0.650-0.635 for a while. The USDCNY has risen past 7.20 but can have immediate upside limited to 7.22/23. Pound above 1.31 can eventually rise past its current range of 1.34-1.32. The USDINR has a scope to test 86.00-86.10 before turning lower towards 85.

The US Treasury Yields are attempting to rise back. But they have to breach their immediate resistance to clear the way for more rise. Else they can fall back again. The German yields have come down. But supports are there to limit the downside. While the supports hold, the overall bullish view will continue to remain intact, and the yields can rise again. The 10Yr GoI continues to come down. The view remains bearish. The yield can fall more from here.

Dow Jones and Dax have risen well and look bullish targeting 43000+ and 24000 respectively. Asia-Pac indices seem to be taking a breather after rising sharply recently. Nifty could see a slight correction but while above 24600 it can target 25500-26000 in the medium term, while Nikkei and Shanghai trade lower and can test 37500 and 3350-3300 before bouncing back from there soon.

Crude prices remain under pressure, with Brent and WTI likely to trade in their respective $67–$60 and $64–$58 ranges. Gold is holding firm above support and may rise towards $3,300–$3,350, while Silver stays range-bound between $34–$32. Copper is retreating from resistance and could decline further to $4.20. Natural gas continues its bearish trend, eyeing support near $3.00.

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