Morning briefing: The Euro is nearing the support around 1.1650-1.1600
The Dollar Index needs to see a rise past 98-99 to confirm that the downtrend has ended. Till then,the range of 99-96 can hold. The Euro is nearing the support around 1.1650-1.1600. Whether the support holds or extends the fall even further will have to be seen. EURINR is trading within the 100-101 range. EURJPY has risen as anticipated and can target 175 in the near term. USDJPY and USDCNY are holding the respective ranges of 148-145 and 7.18-7.16/14 for now. The Aussie continues to trade within the 0.66-0.65 region. The Pound is nearing the support at 1.34 which can be tested before attempting to rise back towards 1.36. USDINR yesterday tested 86.0525 before coming down. A further rise past 86.05 if seen can open the doors for 86.25-86.50. Else, it can continue to trade within 86.05-85.50 region.
The US Treasury yields sustain higher. There is room to rise more from here. Near-term outlook is positive. The US CPI data release today will need a watch. A high inflation number could be positive for the yields. The German yields are inching up. The bullish view is intact. The yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI has risen back within its range. The sideways range is intact for now.
The Dow Jones rose yesterday and could trade within a broad range of 43500-45000 while the Dax can rise towards 24500 or higher if the bounce sustains above 24000; else a decline to 23500 can again be seen. Nifty has tested the support at 25000 and now needs to sustain the bounce from there to eventually move higher. Nikkei has scope to rise to 40000-41000 in the coming days while above 39000. Shanghai looks gradually bullish towards 3550-3600 while above 3500.
Crude prices have dipped due to concerns over global growth from U.S. tariff policies, but support levels remain intact, keeping the near-term bullish outlook towards $72–$74 for Brent and $70–$72 for WTI. Gold and Silver saw brief declines but are expected to rise towards $3400-3,450 and $41-42 respectively. Copper is holding above key support at $5.50, with a break lower possibly dragging it to $5.30. Natural gas remains on track to rise towards $3.60 as long as support holds.
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Author
Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.
