Morning briefing: The downside in the Dollar Index looks limited

The downside in the dollar index looks limited. We can expect it to go higher either from here itself or after some more dip. That in turn will keep the upside capped for the EUR/USD and drag it lower in the coming days. Dollar-Yen is sustaining the bounce seen on Friday. A further rise in the near-term looks possible. This rise can aid the EUR/JPY also to go higher. EURINR has dipped but has support coming up. The Cross can hold above this support and can rise back and go higher. USD/CNY has bounced back. But resistance can cap the upside and keep the broader downtrend intact. More fall is on the cards. Aussie can go higher in the coming days. Pound on the other hand can dip first from here and then can resume its upmove. The USDINR pair is likely to breach the immediate psychological resistance and go up.

The US Treasury Yields have bounced back. Failure to sustain this bounce can still drag them lower going forward. Need to wait and watch. The German Yields remain lower. Failure to get a strong bounce from here can take the yields much lower from here. The 10Yr GoI is heading up in line with our expectation. The price action in the coming days will need a watch as the yield will enter into an important resistance zone.

Global stock indices remain largely under pressure. The Dow Jones ($52,000 support) and DAX ($25,000 support) are holding key levels for potential bounces toward $53,000–$53,500 and 25,600–25,800. Meanwhile, Asian markets face ongoing weakness: Nifty's temporary recovery toward 22,700–22,750 risks giving way to further declines toward 22,350–22,250, while Nikkei (below 64,000) and Shanghai (below 3,700) remain vulnerable to moves toward 62,000 and 3,600–3,550 respectively.

Crude oil and precious metals remain under selling pressure, with Brent ($117 resistance) and WTI ($104 resistance) eyeing further pullbacks, while Gold risks a breakdown below $4,000 and Silver slides toward $52–$50. In contrast, Copper is trending higher toward $6.60 after a solid bounce off $6.35 support, and Natural Gas has stabilized into a $2.7–$3.2 range following a contract rollover gap-up.