Morning briefing: The Dollar Index is struggling to break

The Dollar Index is struggling to break above 102 and could ease towards 100, while EURUSD is expected to stay within 1.1370-1.1470 until a clear breakout. EURINR holds support near 109/108.70 and may rise towards 109.50-110. USDJPY could dip towards 161 before resuming its broader upside towards 163/165, while EURJPY may remain confined within 183-186 unless a decisive breakout occurs. USDCNY is declining towards 6.78, with a break lower opening chances of 6.77/6.75. Aussie and Pound are likely to remain range-bound within 0.69-0.70 and 1.33-1.34, respectively, while USDINR looks bullish above the 95-94.90 floor, targeting 96.

The US Treasury Yields have come off slightly. But support can limit the downside and take them higher again. The German Yields sustain higher and have room to go up. The 10Yr GoI remains higher but stable. It can test the upcoming resistance and then possibly turn down again.

Global equities have recovered on optimism over limited escalation in the Middle East. Dow remains below 53500 and can remains vulnerable for a fall towards 52000-51800 while below this level. DAX has bounced back and can rise towards 25500. Nifty remains volatile and could trade within the 23800-24200 range for some time. Nikkei is likely to remain within the broad 68000-72000 range. Shanghai has turned positive again and can rise further towards 4100 while holding above 4000.

Commodities are showing mixed trends as easing geopolitical concerns have weighed on crude prices, while metals have stabilized. Brent and WTI can recover towards $85 and $80 respectively while holding above key support levels. Gold and Silver are likely to remain range-bound between $4000-$4250 and $55-$65 respectively. Copper faces resistance near $6.30 and may trade within the $6.00-$6.30 range. Natural Gas continues to remain range-bound within the broader $3.00-$3.50 band.