Morning briefing: Euro can test 1.1700 before possibly turning lower

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index can fall towards 97-96 before halting. Meanwhile Euro and EURINR can test 1.17 and 100.50-101.00 respectively before possibly turning lower. EURJPY has risen well and is likely to test 170 as well. Thereafter, whether the rise extends further or not will have to be seen. USDJPY has immediate support near 144 and while it holds, the pair can rise back towards 146-148 in the near term. USDCNY is trading near the lower end of its 7.20-7.17/16 range. The Aussie is trading higher within 0.6350-0.6550 and the Pound if sustained can target 1.3700-1.3750. USDINR has immediate resistance at 86.25, below which a range of 85.75-86.25 is expected to hold before a break happens on either side. US Durable Goods and US GDP data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields continue to fall as expected. Our bearish view remains intact, and the yields can fall more in the coming days. The German yields have moved up further. Resistances are ahead to cap the upside. While the resistances hold, the yields can reverse lower again. The 10Yr GoI has moved up again within the range. The sideways range continues to remain intact. We retain our bullish bias to see an upside break of the range eventually.

Global indices show mixed movement. The Dow has dipped below $43,000 but could bounce back towards $43,300–$43,400 if support at $42,800–$42,700 holds. DAX faces resistance at $23,800, and a failure to rise could pull it down to $23,000. Nifty remains firm above 25,000, but a decisive break above 25,300 is needed to target $25,500 and beyond. Nikkei has climbed past $39,000 and may rise towards $40,000, while Shanghai continues its upward momentum with potential to reach $3,500–$3,550.

Crude prices are holding above key supports and may bounce towards $70–$72 (Brent) and $68–$70 (WTI) respectively. Metals remain firm, with Gold likely to rise towards $3,450 while Silver could test $37. Copper is range-bound between $4.75–$5.00, awaiting a breakout. Natural Gas continues to decline and may dip further to $3.50.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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