Morning briefing: EUR/USD can trade within 1.1800-1.1700 range

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index need to see a confirmed break past the resistance coming near current levels to head towards 99 and higher levels. EURUSD & EURINR can trade within 1.18-1.17 & 106.25-105.00 region. EURJPY & USDJPY can remain range bound between 182-186 & 154-158 region for some time. USDCNY has slipped below 7.00 and can fall towards 6.95 or even further in the near term. Aussie & Pound can attempt to rise towards 0.68 & 1.36, while both the pairs trade above 0.665 & 1.345 respectively. USDINR is stuck within 89.75-90.00 region. While the resistance at 90 holds, a fall towards 89 region is expected in the near term.

The US Treasury and the German yields have risen back after a brief dip seen in the previous session. If the rebound holds, we may expect a rise in the yields for the rest of the week. The Indian 10Yr GOI seems to be holding below 6.60% and could have scope for a dip towards 6.55/50% in the next few sessions.

The Dow is expected to trade within 48000-49000 for now while Dax has resistance near 25000 which if holds can lead to a fall towards 24000. Nifty can test 25800 before rebounding towards 26300-26600 in the next few weeks. Nikkei could test 50000-49500 before rebounding from there while Shanghai looks ranged within 3950-4000 for now.

Brent and WTI are trading below resistance and can stay range-bound between $62–$58 and $59–$55. Gold is holding support and may bounce towards $4500–$4600. Silver has rebounded sharply and can move towards $80 if support holds, though a break lower can drag it to $70–$68. Copper remains firm with scope to rise towards $5.80–$6.00. Natural Gas stays weak below $4.00–$4.20 with downside towards $3.60–$3.40.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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