Morning briefing: Euro needs sustain above 1.0800, else would be vulnerable to see 1.0700 -1.0600

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Dollar Index needs to hold below 104 to fall towards 102 while Euro needs sustain above 1.08, else would be vulnerable to see 1.07-1.06. EURJPY has risen from 158.72 and could rise towards 160 before again declining back towards 158. Dollar Yen has sustained well above 146 can rise towards 148-150 in the near term. USDCNY continues to trade between 7.12-7.15/16. Aussie could fall towards 0.65 or lower while the resistance at 0.67 holds. Pound can be ranged below 1.27 for a while. USDRUB is rising as expected and is likely to test 92-94 on the upside. EURINR is falling sharply but could face some support at 90. USDINR could be ranged within 83.25-83.40.

The US Treasury yields have bounced slightly. A break below their crucial supports if seen can extend bearish bias. The German yields continue to move down in line with our expectation. They have room to fall more in the coming sessions. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have dipped yesterday and could trade within a narrow range for sometime before breaking higher eventually.

Dow Jones lacks strength but outlook remains bullish while above the support at 36000-35800. DAX is heading up towards the key resistance as expected. Need to see if it breaks higher or falls back from there. Nifty has surged above 20500 and may look to rise further from here. Nikkei has broken below its sideways range and looks vulnerable to fall further while below 33000. Shanghai remains bearish for the near term.

Crude prices have declined towards their key support from where a possible bounce back can be seen. Gold, Silver and Natural gas remains vulnerable for the near term. Copper looks bearish to break below its immediate support at 3.80 and fall further.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold adds to Thursday's gains as softer bond yields drag USD to over one-week low

Gold attracts buyers for the second straight day on Friday amid a broadly weaker US Dollar, though it remains confined in a two-week-old range. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, fell to a nearly two-week low as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Annual IMF and World Bank Group Meetings did little to alter the rate outlook.

Busy week for Ripple’s RLUSD: What changes for stablecoin holders?

Ripple’s RLUSD is gaining ground across institutional finance, with a major bank launching custody services, a new wallet integration making it easier for developers to build payments and agentic experiences on the network, and a brokerage platform planning to use the stablecoin for settlement.

Hot inflation, falling yields: A new test for global markets

Global markets are confronting a difficult combination: renewed inflation pressure, expensive capital and growing scrutiny of the investment supporting the AI boom. The most revealing development this week was the demand for government bonds even as US inflation accelerated. My assessment is that investors should treat this as a test of financing resilience.

Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff

Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.