Morning briefing: Euro looks stable below 1.1600

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The US government shutdown has effectively ended as of 12-Nov-25 after 43 days of closure. The Dollar Index needs to rise past 100 to head towards 101. Else, a break below 99 can negate the anticipated rise and extend the fall towards 98. The Euro & EURINR looks stable below 1.16 & 103 for now. The targets of 1.14 & 101.50-101.00 are kept alive for now until further clarity. EURJPY can test 180 soon. While USDJPY met our target of 155 and now a sustained move above 155 will be needed to head towards 156-158. Else, a pullback towards 154-152 looks likely. USDCNY continues to trade within 7.15-7.10 region. The Aussie is trading higher within its 0.645-0.660 range. Pound has slipped below 1.3140 and can target 1.30 in the near term. USDINR is holding the 88.50-88.85 region for now.

The US Treasury yields dipped within the range and then has risen back. The sideways range remains intact, and the yields can continue to oscillate within it. The German yields have dipped further. The view is bearish to see more fall from here. The 10Yr GoI can continue to oscillate within its sideways range.

The Dow and Dax have risen and could be headed towards 49000 and 24500-25000. Nifty has risen on optimism over US-India trade deal. The index has risen above 25800 and could be headed towards 26000 soon. Nikkei is headed towards 52000 with downside limited to 49000 in the near term. Shanghai can trade within 4050-3950 for the near term.

Crude prices have dropped sharply, with Brent slipping to $62.56 and WTI hitting $58.30, and both can extend lower towards $61-60 and $57-56 as supply concerns build. Gold is steadily climbing towards $4200-4250, while Silver looks ready for a stronger move if it clears $53.77, which can open a rise to $54.50-55.50, though failure can pull it back to $52-50. Copper is expected to stay within $5.20-4.90 for now, and Natural Gas needs a break above $4.60 to push towards $4.70-4.80.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.