Morning briefing: Euro looks stable below 1.1600

The US government shutdown has effectively ended as of 12-Nov-25 after 43 days of closure. The Dollar Index needs to rise past 100 to head towards 101. Else, a break below 99 can negate the anticipated rise and extend the fall towards 98. The Euro & EURINR looks stable below 1.16 & 103 for now. The targets of 1.14 & 101.50-101.00 are kept alive for now until further clarity. EURJPY can test 180 soon. While USDJPY met our target of 155 and now a sustained move above 155 will be needed to head towards 156-158. Else, a pullback towards 154-152 looks likely. USDCNY continues to trade within 7.15-7.10 region. The Aussie is trading higher within its 0.645-0.660 range. Pound has slipped below 1.3140 and can target 1.30 in the near term. USDINR is holding the 88.50-88.85 region for now.

The US Treasury yields dipped within the range and then has risen back. The sideways range remains intact, and the yields can continue to oscillate within it. The German yields have dipped further. The view is bearish to see more fall from here. The 10Yr GoI can continue to oscillate within its sideways range.

The Dow and Dax have risen and could be headed towards 49000 and 24500-25000. Nifty has risen on optimism over US-India trade deal. The index has risen above 25800 and could be headed towards 26000 soon. Nikkei is headed towards 52000 with downside limited to 49000 in the near term. Shanghai can trade within 4050-3950 for the near term.

Crude prices have dropped sharply, with Brent slipping to $62.56 and WTI hitting $58.30, and both can extend lower towards $61-60 and $57-56 as supply concerns build. Gold is steadily climbing towards $4200-4250, while Silver looks ready for a stronger move if it clears $53.77, which can open a rise to $54.50-55.50, though failure can pull it back to $52-50. Copper is expected to stay within $5.20-4.90 for now, and Natural Gas needs a break above $4.60 to push towards $4.70-4.80.

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