Morning briefing: Euro has a scope to fall towards 1.1400

The Dollar Index had declined a bit yesterday. A fresh rally can only begin on a break past 99, else it can be vulnerable to fall back towards 97 or even 96. Euro has a scope to fall towards 1.14 while it trades below 1.16/17. The EURINR has limited upside to 100. While below it, a fall back towards 98 or lower can be seen. EURJPY can head towards 170 or higher levels if sustained above 167. USDJPY and USDCNY can remain ranged within the 142-146 and 7.17-7.20 region respectively. AUDUSD and Pound can trade within the ranges of 0.6500-0.6400/635 and 1.36-1.34 respectively in the near term. The USDINR slipped below 86 by the closing. Immediate range of 86.25-85.80 can hold for some time before a break happens. BOJ meeting, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production, US Capacity Utilisation data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury Yields sustain higher within their sideways range. There is room to move up within the range in the near term. But the broader bias is negative to break the range on the downside eventually. The US Fed meeting outcome tomorrow will need a close watch. The German yields remain stable. They have to break their resistance and get a strong follow-through rise to become bullish. Else there is a danger of falling back again. The 10Yr GoI has come down. But support is there to limit the downside and keep the bullish view intact. A range bound move is possible in the near-term before the next leg of rise is seen.

Signal from Iran to end hostilities with Israel and to resume its nuclear talks with US has led to a rise in Dow and Dax yesterday. Dow and Dax are headed towards 43000 and 24000-24500 in the near term while above 42000 and 23500 respectively. Nifty has risen well to almost 25000. A further rise to 25200 looks likely for the near term. Nikkei and Shanghai trade positive and could be headed towards 39000 and 3400 which are crucial resistances. Failure to break past the target resistances would lead to another corrective dip in the coming sessions.

Crude prices remained weak as Iran signaled interest in resuming nuclear talks, with Brent and WTI holding above key support levels of $70/$71 and $69/$70 respectively, suggesting potential rebounds in the near term. Gold pulled back but stays bullish above $3,400, while Silver remains range-bound between $36–$37. Copper is stable above support, likely to trade between $4.70–$5.00, and Natural gas continues to hover within the $3.50–$3.80 range.

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