Morning briefing: Euro faces immediate resistance at 1.1730

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index can be vulnerable to extend the ongoing fall towards the lower end of its 99-97 if it fails to see an immediate bounce back from the support near 97.75 level. Euro faces immediate resistance at 1.1730 and higher at 1.18, thereby suggesting limited upside. EURINR needs to see a break past 103.50 to bring 104 and higher levels into picture. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the 171-173 and 148.00-145.50 range for some time. USDCNY can fall towards the support between 7.12-7.11 region. Aussie and Pound needs to decisively breach the resistance at 0.655 and 1.3530 respectively to rise further. USDINR can head towards 89 while above 88.

The US Treasury yields are holding above their support. They have to bounce from here to rise further and avoid more fall. We will have to wait and see. The German Yields are bouncing back from near their support. While this support holds, the bias is positive to see more rise going forward. The 10Yr GoI continues to oscillate around its resistance. For now, there can be a range around this resistance. Eventually we can see the yield coming down.

The Dow Jones could dip while below resistance at 46000 and test 45000-44500. The Dax can trade within 23500-24500 region in the near term while Nifty may bounce from support near 24400-24350 region and head back towards 24600-24800. Nikkei can dip to 42000-41000 before bouncing higher while Shanghai can rise to resistance near 4000 before declining towards 3700 in the medium term.

Brent and WTI remain under pressure below key resistances and are expected to decline further in the coming weeks, while Gold has risen above $3,500 but faces resistance at $3,550 that could trigger either a pullback or a fresh rally if broken. Silver is testing a crucial breakout point near $41.20, with a sustained move higher opening the door to $42–43, else a dip towards $40–38 is possible. Copper continues to strengthen towards $4.60–4.65, and Natural gas is also gaining with scope to rise towards $3.10–3.20.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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