Morning briefing: Euro can move towards 1.1400

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index & Euro can move towards 101 & 1.14 respectively. EURINR continues to trade within 103-102 region. EURJPY is stuck between 179-177 region. The USDJPY can extend the ongoing rise to 156 or even 158 on a confirmed rise past 155. Immediate support at 154. USDCNY is holding the 7.10-7.15 range quite well for now. The Aussie can fall within its 0.660-0.645 range. The Pound has dipped below 1.3140 and failing to see an immediate bounce from current levels can drag it toward 1.28 in the medium term. USDINR need to see a break above 88.85 to rise towards 89.00-89.30.

The US Treasury yields have risen above their intermediate resistance. That opens the door to see more rise from here itself without seeing another leg of fall. The German yields are going up as expected to test their resistance. They can reverse lower and fall back after testing the resistance. The 10Yr GoI failed to sustain the intraday rise yesterday. That keeps the chances alive of seeing a dip in the coming days.

The Dow closed slightly on a negative note while DAX moved up. The Dow needs to break past 47500 to avoid a dip to 47000-46000 while the Dax needs to break above 24250-24300 to rise further towards 24600-24800. Nifty has also bounced well yesterday and if it breaks above 25800 today, it can rally towards 26000 or higher soon. Nikkei continues its uptrend targeting 53000-54000. Shanghai trades flat. It is likely to trade within the 3900-4000 region for the near term.

Crude prices continue to weaken as expected. Gold is holding steady near $4000 and may remain range-bound between $3900-4100 until a clear breakout occurs. Silver continues its slide with potential to test $46-44 soon. Copper stays confined within $5.20-5.00, showing no decisive move yet. Natural Gas, however, has surged sharply on expectations of a colder US winter and could rise further towards $4.40-4.50 in the near term.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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