Morning briefing: Euro can fall towards 1.1400

The Dollar Index needs to rise past 99 in order to end the downtrend and to begin a fresh rally. Euro can fall towards 1.14 while it trades below 1.16/17. The EURINR has limited upside to 100. While below it, a fall back towards 98 or lower can be seen. EURJPY needs to hold above 166 and rise past 167 to test 170 or higher levels. USDJPY and USDCNY can remain ranged within the 142-146 and 7.17-7.20 region respectively. AUDUSD and Pound have declined a bit. Overall, the ranges of 0.6500-0.6400/635 and 1.36-1.34 are likely to hold in the near term. The USDINR is trading higher on the NDF and has a scope to extend the rise towards 86.25-86.50 in the coming weeks. IN WPI & Trade Balance data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury Yields have risen back well on Friday. The yields are oscillating in a range now and have chances to move up within it. However, the bias remains negative for the yields to break the range on the downside and fall eventually. We will have to wait and see. The US Fed meeting outcome this week on Wednesday will be an important event to watch. The German yields fell to test their support as expected and has risen back well. A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to become bullish and avoid falling back. The 10Yr GoI has come down from its high of Friday. The view remains bullish, and there is room to rise more.

Escalation of war scenario between Iran and Israel led to sharp decline in the equity segment on Friday, a recovery can be expected today. Dow and Dax were down sharply but while above 42000 and 23500, a rise can be expected. Else further extension of fall to 41000 and 23000 can come into the picture. Nifty is likely to trade within the 24400-25200 range for the near term. Nikkei and Shanghai trade in the green today, opening the week on a positive note. Nikkei can rise back to 38500 or higher while Shanghai can trade within 3375-3390/3400 for the near term with a possible dip to 3350 in the next 1-2 weeks.

Crude prices are highly volatile amid escalating Iran-Israel tensions, with Brent falling from $78.31 after testing resistance near $80, and WTI dropping from $76.54 as $78 holds firm; both may trade in the $80–$70 and $78–$68 ranges unless resistance breaks. Gold remains strong above $3,400 and may rise toward $3,500–$3,600, while Silver is consolidating between $35.50–$37. Copper is bouncing within a $4.70–$5.00 range, and Natural gas continues to trade between $3.50–$3.80.

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