Morning briefing: Euro can dip to 1.1800-1.1700 while below 1.1875

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The DXY could head towards 96.75-98 while Euro can dip to 1.18-1.17 while below 1.1875. EURINR could continue to dip towards support near 107-106.50 while below 108. EURJPY and USDJPY look bullish for a slow rise to 184/186 and 155/156 respectively while above respective supports at 181/180 and 152/151. USDCNY can rise to 6.92/95 while above 6.90, with crucial support still at 6.85. The Aussie can test 0.70/69 while below 0.7150 while the Pound needs to break past 1.37 to head toward 1.38+ levels, else can trade within the 1.37-1.35 region. Any break below 1.35 could make it vulnerable to decline further. USDINR could continue to remain sideways within 90.40-90.75 region for now with a possible breakout on the upside towards 91.

The US Treasury yields remain lower and stable. They can dip further from here and then can possibly rise back. The German Yields have dipped slightly. They are moving down in line with our expectation and can fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI remains stable. There is not much room on the downside. The yield can rise back in the coming days.

Dow is holding above support and can bounce towards 49800–50000 while the level sustains. DAX has recovered from 24731 but faces resistance near 25200, below which a fall towards 24600–24500 remains possible. Nifty is approaching resistance at 25,800, and unless it breaks higher towards 26,000–26,200, a dip to 25,500–25,200 can be seen. Nikkei has tested 56190 and may decline further towards 56,150–56,000. Shanghai remains closed for the Lunar New Year and will resume trading on 24-Feb-26.

Brent and WTI are likely to remain range-bound within $70–$66 and $66–$62 respectively for now. Gold has declined as expected and may extend its fall towards $4850–$4800. Silver also looks weak with scope to test $70–$65. Copper has tested $5.62 and needs to hold above $5.65 for a bounce towards $5.7–$5.8, else it can slip towards $5.6–$5.5. Natural Gas is holding above support and may recover towards $3.2–$3.4 in the near term.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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