Morning briefing: EUR/USD trades within its 1.1500-1.1600 range

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index can move towards 101 while it sustains above 99.50. EURUSD is trading within its 1.15.-1.16 range. EURINR can initially test 102.50 before rebounding within its 102.00-103.50/104 range. EURJPY and USDJPY needs to see a break on either side of their 180–182 & 156-158 range respectively. USDNCY is coming off and can fall towards the lower end of its 7.125-7.090 range. The Aussie need to sustain above current levels to move towards 0.65-0.655, while Pound faces immediate resistance at 1.315 which can be tested before coming down. USDINR is trading below 89.50 and has a scope to extend the decline towards 89.00-88.75. US PPI, US Retail sales & US Case Schiller are the data releases scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have dipped further. A break below their immediate support can drag the yields lower first from here and then a reversal can happen. The German Yields remain lower. They look vulnerable to break their immediate support and fall more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI remains mixed and can go either way from here within its sideways range.

The Dow and Dax have risen following comments from Governor Waller on expectations of a potential FED rate cut in Dec-25 and on optimism on Ukraine’s peace deal. Dow could trade within 48000-45500/45000 region while Dax can trade within 23600-23000 for the near term. Nifty slipped below 26000 and could test 25800 before rebounding towards 26200 again. Nikkei has rebounded and trades higher today. A further rise towards 50000-52000 looks likely for the near term. Shanghai can bounce within the 3800-4050 region.

Crude prices have risen from levels seen yesterday. Brent and WTI could be headed towards near term resistances at $64 and $60-60.50 respectively before facing rejection from there in the coming days. Gold and Silver has risen. Gold needs to rise above $4150-4200 to indicate some near term bullishness else can remain within the $4150-4000 region while Silver looks bullish while above $48. Copper remains stable within its broader $5.10-4.90 band. Natural gas has risen as expected and could have scope to test $4.7/4.8 while above $4.4.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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