Morning briefing: EUR/USD must conquer 1.1600 resistance to avoid downside risk

The Dollar Index has declined below 99.50 and a break below 99 if seen can drag it to 98 as well. EURUSD & EURINR needs to see a break past 1.16 & 103.75 to bring higher levels into picture. EURJPY is trading lower within its 182-180 range. USDJPY has declined below 156 and can now test the support around 155-154 region before attempting to bounce back later. USDCNY can fall towards 7.065-7.060 in the near term. The Aussie need to sustain above 0.655 to head towards 0.660-0.665. Pound can target 1.33-1.34 while it trades above 1.32. USDINR is trading within 89.00-89.50 range for now. A rise past 89.50 can take the pair towards 89.75-90.25 in the coming weeks. IN IIP, IN Manufaturing PMI & US ISM Manufacturing are some of the key data releases scheduled for the day.

The US Treasury yields have risen but resistance is ahead. They have to break this resistance to move higher and avoid the fall that we have been expecting. The German Yields continue to remain stable. They have to get a strong rise from here to avoid the danger of the fall breaking below their support. The 10Yr GoI is moving up with its range. It can rise towards the upper end of the range from here.

The Dow and Dax have slightly risen. Both can head towards 48000 and 24000-24200 respectively in the near term. Nifty needs to break above 26300 to test 26500 on the upside. Else a decline from here can take it down to 26000-25800 again. Nikkei has fallen sharply today and could find support near 49000 or at 48000 while below 50000. Shanghai can continue to rise towards 4000 while in the 3800-4000 trade range.

All below mentioned commodities are trading higher today. Gold and Silver have surged and could continue to rise in the near term targeting $4400 and $58-60 soon. Crude prices are trading higher too and can test $64 (Brent) and $60.50 (WTI). Copper has risen past the near term resistance at $5.2 that we were mentioning last week. Now, a test of $5.5-5.6 can be possible while above $5.3. Natural Gas has also risen well as expected. A test of $5.5-5.6 is now possible before any pull back is seen.