Morning briefing: EUR/USD moved above 1.1700

The Dollar Index fell to 98.246 before recovering from there. While above 98, the DXY can attempt to rise back towards 99 and above. EURUSD moved above 1.17 but faces immediate resistance at 1.1770-1.1800 which can cap the upside for now. EURINR can test 107 soon. Thereafter, whether it extends the rise further or declines will have to be seen. EURJPY & USDJPY can head towards 186/187 & 160-162 levels respectively. USDCNY can fall towards 6.95-6.90 levels. Aussie & Pound can trade within 0.6650-0.6750 & 1.33-1.355 range respectively for now. USDINR rose to 91.0450 before easing. While below 91.25, the pair can decline towards 90.75–90.50 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply and are heading up towards their next resistance level much faster than expected. The ongoing trade tensions between the US and Europe is pushing the yields higher. The price action around the resistance will need a watch to see if the yields are reversing lower or extending the rise. The German Yields have come up and are hovering around their resistance. A strong rise from here can take them further higher and will negate our view of seeing a fall. The 10Yr GoI sustains higher. There is some room to rise from here before a reversal happens.

Most indices are looking weak on political issues in Japan and tariff hike threats by Trump in Europe, insisting on his intentions to take control of Greenland. The Dow has declined and could test 48000-47500 while the DAX has plunged over the last 2-sessions, re-entering the 25000-23000 zone seen in the second half of 2025. Nifty broke below 25500 but could take support either from 25000 or lower from 24000 in the medium term. Nikkei looks bearish towards 52000. Only Shanghai trades in the green, above 4100 now. It can remain stable within 4050-4200 for the very near term.

Crude prices have strengthened. Brent likely to move higher towards $66–$68 and WTI targeting $61–$62 on tighter global supplies. Gold has surged on a weaker dollar and geopolitical concerns and can extend its rise towards $4,900–$5,000 in the near term. Silver continues to trade with a bullish bias and is likely to move up towards $96–$98. Copper is holding above $5.8 and can bounce towards $6.0–$6.2 unless it breaks below $5.8 and slips to $5.6–$5.4. Natural gas remains strong after its sharp rally and can rise further towards $4.2–$4.4 in the coming sessions.