Morning briefing: Crude prices are trading within narrow ranges

The ECB as widely expected lowered the refinancing rate by 25 bps, bringing it down to 2.15%. Dollar Index and Euro can target 98-96 and 1.15-1.16 respectively in the near term. EURINR, above 97/96 looks bullish towards 99-100 levels. EURJPY is trading higher within the 160-165 region. USDJPY below 145, can fall back towards 142 or even 140 before halting. AUDUSD continues to trade within 0.6550-0.6400/635 range and Pound is hovering near the resistance at 1.36 region. The USDCNY on a decisive break below 7.18 can test the lower targets of 7.17/15. The USDINR is moving within 86.00-85.75 range. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity. The US NFP, Unemployment and Avg hrly Earnings data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury Yields remain below their support which was broken on Wednesday. That keeps them vulnerable to fall more from here. The US NFP and the Unemployment data release will be important to watch today. The German yields have risen back sharply from near their supports. It will have to be seen if they are getting a strong follow-through rise from here or not. The ECB cut their policy rates by 25 bps as expected and might pause the rate cuts for a while. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its narrow range. The range is intact for now. The bias is negative to see a downside breakout of this range. The RBI meeting outcome is due today. Market expects a 25 bps rate cut today.

The Dow declined yesterday but may attempt to rise back while keeping the trade range of 41,000-4300/ intact. The markets await the NFP data release due today. The Dax is headed towards immediate resistance near 24500, above which further bullishness would emerge. Nifty needs to break above 24900 to gain bullishness towards 25000+ levels while Nikkei could trade within the 37000-38500 range for the next couple of weeks at least. Shanghai is heading towards the resistance of 3400 a break above which will be needed for frsh bullishness to set in.

Crude prices are trading within narrow ranges, awaiting a breakout. Gold is consolidating below $3,400, with potential to rise towards $3,450–$3,500 in the coming weeks. Silver surged to a 13-year high of $36.27, driven by concerns over China's restrictions on rare-earth metal exports. With resistance near current levels, Silver could pull back to $35–$34 if the level holds, or target $40 or above if broken. Copper may experience a short-term dip before rebounding. Natural gas remains bullish above $3.60, with an upside target of $3.90–$4.00.

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