Morning briefing: Euro has bounced back as the support at 1.0650 has held well

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index has turned down after facing rejections from 106 whereas the Euro has bounced back as the support at 1.0650 has held well. EURJPY has scope to test 162 from where a decline looks possible. USDJPY can test 151.63-152 on the upside. The Aussie and Pound look bearish below 0.6450 and 1.24 respectively. USDCNY is rising steadily and has scope to target further upside while above 7.25/26. USDRUB is bearish while below 94/93. USDINR may continue trade between 83.20-83.30. The EURINR can possibly trade within 88.50-89.50 for the near term.

Dow Jones need a sustained break above 34200 to negate the danger of seeing a fall back. DAX has scope to test 15400-15500 before turning lower from there. Nifty upside looks capped at 19500-19600. Nikkei has bounced back as the support at 32000 has held well as expected. Shanghai remains stable but outlook remains bullish while above the support at 3025.

The US Treasury and the German yields are coming down in line with our expectation. There is room for both the yields to fall more from here to test their supports. After that a fresh rise is possible. The 10Yr is coming down as expected and can fall more. But the 5Yr has support coming up. We will have to wait and watch whether that support is holding or not.

Crude prices and Natural Gas are near their crucial support which is expected to hold and produce a bounce back from there. Gold, Silver and Copper remains bearish for the near term.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold looks vacillating above $4,150

Gold alternates gains with losses below the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The yellow metal’s irresolute price action comes in response to a modest pullback in the US Dollar and a tepid recovery in US Treasury yields across the board.

Bitcoin steadies at $82,000: The five forces crushing the Uptober rally

Crypto markets have remained under pressure so far in October, with Bitcoin (BTC) sliding below $80,000 earlier this week before recovering to around $82,000 on Friday, as macroeconomic headwinds and cooling demand weigh on the market.

The Fed just got a second hot inflation number. Here's what the diesel signal is really saying

The Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a renewed inflation challenge after two consecutive reports showed price pressure intensifying across the US economy. September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) confirmed accelerating consumer inflation, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed an even sharper rise in business costs. Behind both reports lies a common factor: energy prices.

Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff

Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.