Modest equity gains seen ahead of quarter-end

General trend

- China PMIs beat ests.

- Chinese banks trade mixed following earnings [ICBC, Bank of China].

- BOJ may release bond buying schedule after the market close.

- Next week’s RBA decision [Apr 4th] is expected to be a close call [financial press poll].

- US PCE data due later today.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-ASX 200 opens +0.4% at 7,151.

-(AU) Australia sells A$500M v A$500M indicated in 0.25% Nov 2025 bonds: Avg Yield: 2.89%; bid-to-cover: 7.63x.

-(AU) Australia Feb Private Sector Credit M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 7.6% v 8.0% prior.

-(NZ) New Zealand Mar Consumer Confidence: 77.7 v 79.8 prior.

China/Hong Kong

-Hang Seng opens +1.4% at 20,583.

-Shanghai Composite opens +0.1% at 3,263.

-*(CN) CHINA MAR MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 51.9 V 51.6E [3rd month of expansion]; Non-manufacturing PMI: 58.2 v 55.0e (3rd month of expansion; highest since 2011).

-(CN) China PBOC Dep Gov: Reiterates to improve the regulatory quality over the digital economy - Boao forum.

-(CN) China Vice Finance Minister: Reiterates need to step up fiscal policy adjustments.

Japan

-Nikkei 225 opens +0.8% at 28,009.

-*(JP) JAPAN MAR TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.2%E; CPI (EX-FRESH FOOD) Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.1%E.

-*(JP) JAPAN FEB PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 4.5% V 2.7%E [largest m/m rise since Jun 2022]; Y/Y: -0.6% V -2.4%E.

-*(JP) JAPAN FEB RETAIL SALES M/M: 1.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 6.6% V 5.8%E.

-*(JP) JAPAN FEB JOBLESS RATE: 2.6% V 2.4%E.

-(JP) Japan Fin Min Suzuki: Caution needed about selling JGBs without redemption sources.

-(JP) Japan: To impose new restrictions on chipmaking gear; to restrict exports of 23 types of chipmaking equipment; effective from Jul.

-(JP) Japan METI: Bans Russia bound exports of steel, aluminum and aircraft; effective from Apr 7th.

-(JP) Japan Foreign Min Hayashi: To visit Beijing (China) for 2 days from Apr 1st (Sat).

-Sumitomo Mitsui Financial [8316.JP] Said to consider pricing Yen-denominated AT1 bond - US financial press.

Korea

-Kospi opens +0.3% at 2,459.

-(KR) South Korea Feb Industrial Production M/M: -3.2% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -8.1% v -7.5%e.

-(KR) South Korea Financial Regulator: Hopes top financial groups will cooperate with the gov't efforts to help lower borrowing costs.

-(KR) South Korea Vice Fin Min: Mar exports likely to post faster decline than in Feb; To do utmost to achieve inclusion into the FTSE Russell WGBI within 2023.

-(KR) South Korea Ruling Party Official: To discuss further to decide on power and gas price increases.

Other Asia

-(TW) Taiwan Mar PMI Manufacturing: 48.6 v 49.0 prior [10th month of contraction].

North America

-(US) Fed releases factors affecting reserve balances (H.4.1): Discount window borrowing declined to $88.2B v $110.2B w/w; Banks have borrowed $64.4B v $53.6B w/w from new BTFP facility.

-*(US) Q4 FINAL GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 2.6% V 2.7%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 1.0% V 1.4%E.

-*(US) Q4 FINAL GDP PRICE INDEX: 3.9% V 3.9%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 4.4% V 4.3%E.

-(US) Fed’s Kashkari (voter): We have very high inflation but it is not being driven by wages.

-(US) Fed's Barkin (non-voter): No view yet on rate hike at next meeting, lots of data still to come.

-(US) Fed's Collins (non-voter): After hiking again Fed will likely hold steady for remainder of year; Job market strength is likely to moderate.

-(US) Manhattan grand jury votes to indict former Pres Trump; Trump is expected to surrender early next week [Tues, Apr 4th] - NYT.

Europe

-(DE) GERMANY MAR PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.8% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 7.4% V 7.3%E.

-(UK) Follow Up: UK to join the CPTPP.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225, +1%, ASX 200 +0.8% , Hang Seng +0.7%; Shanghai Composite +0.3% ; Kospi +0.9%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures: +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.3%, Dax +0.1%; FTSE100 flat.

- EUR 1.0925-1.0901 ; JPY 133.50-132.58 ; AUD 0.6737-0.6706 ;NZD 0.6298-0.6256.

- Gold flat at $1,997/oz; Crude Oil -0.1% at $74.31/brl; Copper -1% at $4.0735/lb.