|

Markets turn to Trump for clarity

The rising uncertainty and growing unease ahead of Wednesday's news conference by Presidentelect Donald Trump has left financial markets on high alert. Global stocks could be pressured further by depressed oil prices while investor jitters should limit upside gains today. Although Asian shares were mostly positive on Wednesday, there is a threat of European markets falling victim to risk aversion amid the anxiety. Wall Street may turn to Trump for further clarity this evening on how his fiscal policies could boost US economic growth. With Donald Trump already labelled as a renowned market shaker, market participants should keep diligent and be prepared to expect the unexpected.

Sterling remains vulnerable

There is a risk of the hard Brexit fears becoming the dominant theme that ensures Sterling remains depressed for prolonged periods. Although UK economic data continues to display resilience against the Brexit turmoil, the persistent Brexit induced uncertainty has effectively dented investor attraction towards the Sterling. Investors may direct their attention towards the UK manufacturing production report which may provide additional clarity on how the industry has fared against Brexit. While a positive manufacturing production figure may provide the Pound bulls with a temporary lifeline in the short term, sellers may exploit this opportunity to install renewed rounds of selling. The heightened fears over the UK experiencing a rough exit from the European Union have made bears ruthless this week with sellers eyeing 1.2100 and 1.2000 respectively on the GBPUSD.

Currency spotlight – EURUSD

When dealing with the EURUSD it's all about the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. This currency remains fundamentally bearish and technicals on the daily charts also fulfil the prerequisites of a downtrend. Uncertainty and political risks in Europe should subdue the Euro while prospects of higher US rates have made the Dollar king. Technical traders could exploit the breakdown below 1.0500 to attack the EURUSD back towards 1.0350.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold edged higher during early trading on Wednesday as uncertainty ahead of Trump's news conference attracted investors to safe-haven investment. A touch of Dollar weakness has also provided some inspiration for bullish investors to send prices higher towards $1188 as of writing. Although the yellow metal has the ability to experience further short term gains depending on the outcome of today's news conference, the bias still points to the downside. Gold remains gripped by rate hike expectations in the medium to longer term with the current technical bounce seen as an opportunity for longer term bears to attack.

Author

Lukman Otunuga

Lukman Otunuga

ForexTime (FXTM)

Lukman Otunuga has been a Research Analyst at FXTM since 2015. A keen follower of macroeconomic events, with a strong professional and academic background in finance, Lukman is well versed in fundamental and technical analysis.

More from Lukman Otunuga
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds firm above 1.1900 as US NFP looms

EUR/USD holds its upbeat momentum above 1.1900 in the European trading hours on Wednesday, helped by a broadly weaker US Dollar. Markets could turn cautious later in the day as the delayed US employment report for January will takes center stage. 

GBP/USD remains above nine-day EMA near 1.3650

GBP/USD recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.3680 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a sustained bullish bias, as the pair trades within an ascending channel pattern.

Gold sticks to gains near $5,050 as focus shifts to US NFP

Gold holds moderate gains near the $5,050 level in the European session on Wednesday, reversing a part of the previous day's modest losses amid dovish US Federal Reserve-inspired US Dollar weakness. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal ahead of the critical US NFP release. 

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to show modest job gains in January

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 70K following the 50K increase recorded in December.

S&P 500 at 7,000 is a valuation test, not a liquidity problem

The rebound from last week’s drawdown never quite shook the sense that it was being supported by borrowed conviction. The S&P 500 once again tested near the 7,000 level (6,986 as the high watermark) and failed, despite a macro backdrop that would normally be interpreted as supportive of risk.

Bitcoin price slips below $67,000 ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls data

Bitcoin price extends losses, and trades below the lower consolidating boundary at $67,300 at the time of writing. A firm close below this level could trigger a deeper correction for BTC. Despite the weakness in price action, institutional demand shows signs of support, recording mild inflows in ETFs so far this week.