Markets look calm post-holiday amid CME glitch

EU mid-market update: Markets look calm post-holiday amid CME glitch; Oracle’s AI debt machine nears its stress point; Trump weighs Venezuela options; Ukraine corruption scandal reaches Zelenskiy's ally.

- Sentiment is flat as US Thanksgivings holiday continues, trading volumes set to jump when CME reopens; European indices and US futures are little changed. Bitcoin has stabilized >$90K.

- End of month saw plethora of European data, including inflation from Germany, France and Spain, as well as German retail sales and unemployment figures. No surprises.

- President Trump said the US will "very soon" begin targeting suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers on land as well as at sea, warning them to stop "sending poison" to the US. Behind the scenes, the White House has been weighing a wide range of Venezuela options including possible efforts to overthrow Maduro, seizing oil fields, and intensifying nearby US military activity, even as officials publicly deny ongoing negotiations and Trump has voiced reservations about direct strikes.

- FT reported that banks are finally putting together another $38 billion loan for Oracle and Vantage on top of the earlier $18 billion New Mexico deal, quietly pushing Oracle’s AI debt load toward jumbo scale. CreditSights thinks Oracle could still issue about $65 billion more in bonds, but only if it protects its investment-grade rating, which makes this next Oracle AI data center financing the real stress test for the whole AI buildout. If that jumbo deal stumbles or must be heavily repriced, it would signal that credit - not GPUs or power - has become the first really hard limit in the OpenAI–Oracle–SoftBank loop and the quiet candidate for the next DeepSeek style shock.

- As Putin set to meet Witkoff early next week, Ukraine’s Operation Midas, a 15-month NABU and SAPO probe into a roughly $100M kickback scheme at nuclear utility Energoatom, has now reached the office of President Zelenskyy’s powerful chief of staff Andriy Yermak, turning his anti-corruption brand into a test of whether wartime Ukraine can really police its own elite after the July 22nd 2025 attempt to clip those watchdogs’ independence triggered mass protests and an EU backed partial U turn.

Asia

-Japan Cabinet approves ¥18.3T ($117B) extra budget for package; Extra budget includes ¥11.7T of fresh debt issuance – press (as expected).

- Japan Nov Tokyo CPI Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7%e; CPI (ex-fresh food) Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.7%e; CPI (ex-fresh food/energy) y/y: 2.8% v 2.8%e.

- Japan Oct Retail Sales M/M: 1.6% V 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 0.8%e.

- Japan Oct Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: +1.4% V -0.6%e; Y/Y: +1.5% v -0.5%e.

- South Korea government said to be seeking to expand tax incentives in order to 'boost' the KOSDAQ.

-South Korea lawmakers agree to cut the dividend tax rate to 30%.

-Smartphone makers in China said to face certain cost pressures, plan product reductions or price hikes - Digitimes.

-China said to have warned about possible bubble related to humanoid robotics industry.

-Singapore Central Bank (MAS) and Japan BOJ renew bilateral local currency swap to Nov 2028.

-China Politburo holds meeting; Stresses effectively prevent and resolve risks; To promote deepening of reform.

-Taiwan revises economic forecasts: Raises 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 7.4%.

Europe

- S&P on UK budget: Believes there are risks to the United Kingdom fiscal consolidation plan, especially towards the end of the forecast horizon.

- Moody's on UK budget: Tax rises underscore commitment to fiscal consolidation and debt reduction, an important driver for keeping UK rating outlook stable recently.

- BOE Greene [hawkish] said most policy rules suggest keeping rates steady - press.

- Italy canceled plan to scrap tax break for short-term rentals.

- Hungary PM Orban: Will meet Russia's Pres Putin in Moscow on Friday; Goal to secure continued crude and gas supply.

- German Chancellor Merz: Will ask EU for flexibility on combustion-engine ban; Should allow vehicles with dual propulsion and high efficiency combustion engines after 2035.

- Italy reportedly may tweak 'golden power' rules but keep banks oversight; Could change scope and sectors of ability to veto deals - financial press.

Americas

- Thanksgiving online sales are expected +6.0% y/y ; cites Salesforce data - press.

- Pres Trump: Hot stock market is big for 401Ks; Will continue all time highs - virtual comments to US troops.

- Pres Trump: US will "very soon" start taking action to stop suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers on land.

Trade

- Indonesia said to resist US trade deal 'poison pill' and other "coercive clauses" - FT.

- India Trade Sec Agrawal: Expect to have trade deal with US before end of year as most issues are resolved.

Conflict/Tensions

- Germany said to be set to approve €2.9B in arms for defense 'surge'.

- TTN Research Alert: Ukraine's largest wartime corruption probe has now reached the office of Andriy Yermak, President Zelenskiy's powerful chief of staff, turning his anti corruption brand into the central question of whether Kyiv can police its own wartime elites.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 % at #, FTSE +0.18% at 9,711.00, DAX -0.09% at 23,757.50, CAC-40 +0.02% at 8,101.46, IBEX-35 -0.23% at 16,324.50, FTSE MIB -0.06% at 43,196.00, SMI -0.08% at 12,822.22, S&P 500 Futures +0.10%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices open mixed with a negative bias and failed to gain direction in the early part of the session; light trading amid US holiday; among better performing sectors are energy and materials; underperforming sectors include financials and real estate; oil & gas subsector supported amid rebound in crude prices; US early close, no major earnings expected.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Delivery Hero [DHER.DE] +9.5% (said to be under pressure from some 'large holders' to conduct a Strategic Review), EasyJet [EZJ.UK] +1.5% (hearing analyst upgrade), Puma [PUM.DE] -2.5% (ASICS says 'not true' company considering acquisition of Puma).

- Industrials: Rheinmetall [RHM.DE] -1.5% (Putin to speak with Orban).

- Materials: Dottikon [DESN.CH] +9.0% (earnings).

Speakers

- Japan Fin Min Katayama: Reaffirms bond issuance this year is smaller than last year.

- India Chief Economic Advisor: India's debt market must globalise without becoming dependent.

- Japan Foreign Min Motegi: Reiterates important to deal with China situation 'calmly'.

Economic data

- (ES) Spain Sept Current Account Balance: €1.9B v €5.1B prior.

- (DE) Germany Nov CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.3% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.3% prior.

- (NO) Norges Bank Dec Net FX Transactions (NOK): 24M v 24M prior.

- (IS) Iceland Q3 GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: +1.2% v -0.2% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Oct M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.2% prior.

- (IS) Iceland Oct Final Trade Balance (ISK): -24.1B v -24.2B prelim.

- (IT) Italy Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.0% prelim; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.4% prelim.

- (DE) Various German States Nov CPI Readings; CPI Hesse M/M: -0.2% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.4% prior; CPI Bavaria M/M: -0.2% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2% prior; CPI Brandenburg M/M: -0.2% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.6% prior; CPI Saxony M/M: -0.2% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1% prior; CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: -0.3% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.3% prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Oct Consumer Expectation Survey: 1-year ahead CPI expectations: 2.8% v 2.6%e; 3-year ahead CPI expectations: 2.5% v 2.5%e.

- (PL) Poland Nov Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.6%e.

- (DE) Germany Nov Unemployment Change: +1.0K v +4.5Ke; Jobless Claims Rate: 6.3% v 6.3%e.

- (HK) Hong Kong Oct M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.5% v 4.5% prior.

-(TW) Taiwan Q3 Preliminary GDP (2nd reading) Y/Y: 8.2% v 7.6%e.

- (AT) Austria Oct PPI M/M: +0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.1% prior.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Nov 21st (RUB): 19.14T v 19.13T prior.

- (CH) Swiss Nov KOF Leading Indicator: 101.7 v 101.0e.

- (ES) Spain Oct Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.8% v 4.1% prior; Retail Sales (unadj) Y/Y: 4.4% v 6.2% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Q3 Preliminary GDP (2nd reading) Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.7% advance; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.7% advance.

- (ES) Spain Nov Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0%e; CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.0%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.6%e.

- (CH) Swiss Q3 GDP Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e.

- (FR) France Oct Consumer Spending M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.2%e.

-(FR) France Oct PPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.8% v +0.1% prior.

-(FR) France Q3 Total Payrolls: 0.0% v -0.2%e.

- (FR) France Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5% prelim; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9% prelim.

- (FR) France Nov Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.1% V 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e; CPI EU harmonized M/M: -0.2% V 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.0%e.

- (TH) Thailand Foreign Reserves w/e Nov 21st: $270.4B v $272.1B prior.

- (HU) Hungary Oct PPI M/M: +0.4% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.4% prior.

- (HU) Hungary Oct Unemployment Rate: 4.4% v 4.5%e.

- (DK) Denmark Oct Unemployment Rate: 2.6% v 2.6% prior-(TH) Thailand Oct Current Account Balance: -$1.8B v +$0.5Be.

- (TR) Turkey Oct Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.6% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Oct Retail Sales M/M: -0.3% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.4% v 4.3% prior.

- (NO) Norway Nov Unemployment Rate: 2.1% v 2.0%; Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 2.2% v 2.2%e.

-(NO) Norway Oct Retail Sales M/M: +0.1% v -0.5% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Q3 GDP Q/Q: 1.1% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 1.7%e.

- (DE) Germany Oct Retail sales M/M: -0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 0.1%e.

- (DE) Germany Oct Import Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.6%e.

-(ZA) South Africa Oct M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.5% v 6.1% prior.

- (FI) Finland Oct GDP Indicator Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.2% prior.

- (FI) Finland Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.4% v 0.8% prior.

- (FI) Finland Q3 GDP Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: % v 0.2% prior.

- (JP) Japan Oct Annualized Housing Starts: 803K v 740Ke; Y/Y: +3.4% v -4.9%e.

- (UK) Nov Lloyds Business Barometer: 42 v 47e.

- (IE) Ireland Nov Consumer Confidence Index: 61.0 v 59.9 prior.

Fixed income issuance

- Denmark sells total DKK3.94B in 3-month and 6-month Bills.

- India sells total INR320B vs. INR320B indicated in 2028, 2032, 2054 and 2055 bonds.

- Japan sells ¥2.7T vs. ¥2.7T indicated in 2-year JGB bonds; Avg Yield: 0.9930% v 0.9320% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.53x V 4.35x prior (lower than 12-month avg of 3.70x).

Looking ahead

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £6.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.8%e v 0.8% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prelim.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Preliminary CPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.3% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.5% prior.

- 06:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Nominal (overall) Budget Balance (BRL): -59.0Be v -102.2B prior; Primary Budget Balance: +34.0Be v -17.5B prior; Net Debt to GDP: 64.8%e v 64.8% prior.

- 06:30 (IN) India Forex Reserve w/e Nov 21st: No est v $692.6B prior.

- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Oct Trade Balance (ZAR): 23.5Be v 21.8B prior.

- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Oct Monthly Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v -15.4B prior.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Oct National Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.6% prior.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Unemployment Rate: N2.8%e v 3.0% prior.

- 07:00 (CL) Chile Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: 5.5%e v 6.2% prior; Commercial Activity Y/Y: No est v 9.3% prior.

- 07:00 (CL) Chile Oct Unemployment Rate: 8.5%e v 8.5% prior.

- 07:00 (CL) Chile Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.5% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 0.8%e v 5.0% prior.

- 07:00 (CL) Chile Oct Total Copper Production: No est v 456.7K prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:00 (DE) Germany Nov Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.3% prior.

- 08:00 (DE) Germany Nov Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.6%e v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.3% prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept GDP M/M: +0.2%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 0.7% prior; Quarterly Annualized GDP: +0.5%e v -1.6% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Oct National Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.2% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 8.2%e v 8.1% prior.

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 7.11T prior.