There seems to be a growing sense of uncertainty over what to expect from today’s OPEC meeting in Vienna, given the disagreements among major Oil producers around whether to boost output.
While Saudi Arabia and Russia have proposed to ease supply curbs, other members including Iran, Iraq, Algeria and Venezuela are against such a move. With Iran already storming out of preparatory discussions yesterday, investors should fasten their seat belts in preparation for potential fireworks today. If Iran continues to reject the deal to raise output and gathers support from other cartel members, talks are at risk of ending in an impasse. Such an undesirable outcome is likely to create uncertainty and will spark fears over the future of OPEC’s 18-month agreement with Russia to limit production. A market-friendly outcome could be a scenario where Iran makes a last-minute U-turn to cooperate, consequently allowing Saudi Arabia and Russia to move forward with a gradual production increase.
Will OPEC manage to agree on a production increase? This remains a recurrent question on the minds of most investors. Whatever the outcome of the OPEC meeting in Vienna, it will most likely leave a lasting impact on Oil prices.
Currency spotlight – Dollar
The Dollar has extended losses against a basket of major currencies today, easing from an 11month peak as investors engaged in a bout of profit taking. There is a suspicion that the disappointing Philly Fed manufacturing index, which fell to a 19-month low, also played a role in the Dollar decline with prices trading marginally below 94.50 at the time of writing. While the Dollar has scope to venture lower in the short term as bears exploit the weaker economic data to drag prices lower, losses may be limited by US rate hike expectations.
Moving the focus away from the fundamentals, the technical picture remains heavily bullish on the daily charts despite the recent declines. A technical correction could be in play with the next key level of interest on the Dollar Index around the 94.00 region. If bulls are able to defend 94.00, then the Dollar Index has scope to rebound back towards 95.00 and 95.35, respectively.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold is poised to conclude this trading week negatively, as a broadly stronger Dollar and the prospect of higher US interest rates continue to erode appetite for the precious metal.
Although prices have attempted to rebound higher today, this has less to do with a change of sentiment towards Gold and more to do with Dollar weakness amid profit taking. While the safehaven asset could receive some support as uncertainty mounts ahead of the OPEC meeting this afternoon, gains could be capped below $1280 resistance level. With the fundamental drivers behind Gold's depreciation still in place, further weakness could be seen in the medium to longer term.
Disclaimer:This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 90% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh hints on next week's price action.
GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's appearance.
Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230, US PCE eyed
Gold price hit all-time highs at $2,236 on Thursday to finish Q1 2024 with a bang. Most major world markets, including the US are closed due to Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued. US PCE inflation and Powell are awaited.
Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern
Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.
Key events in developed markets next week
Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.