Market themes of the Day: Carney and US retail sales in focus on Friday

What you need to know before markets open
Main themes:

  • The US inflation decelerating below expectations became the biggest mover on Thursday as Trump’s tariffs are beginning to bite into the economic environment.
  • Both The Bank of England and the ECB kept the monetary policy unchanged with ECB confirming the lower level of asset purchasing from October with the end of purchasing in December this year. For details read my Bank of England Analysis here and Yohay’s ECB Analysis here
  • Turkish central bank hiked rates by 625 basis point to 24.00%, disregarding earlier calls from Turkey’s President Erdogan.
  • Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he does not think easing should go on forever. “I want BoJ to deal thoroughly with price stability target, I have trust in BoJ Governor Kuroda,” Abe said.

China

  • China’s industrial production rose 6.1% slightly above expectations for August.
  • China’s retail sales rose 9.1% in line with expectations for August.
  • China’s fixed investment rose 5.3% below expectations for August.

Europe

  • The ECB kept the monetary policy unchanged in line with expectations with Draghi solid on the path of asset purchasing program reduction to €15 billion in October and pulling it all back by December this year. For more details read Yohay’s analysis here.
  • The Eurozone trade balance is expected to have diminished to €18.0 billion in July from €22.5 billion in June.

UK
The Bank of England decided to keep monetary toolkit unchanged in line with expectations with the unanimous voting pattern. For more details read my Analysis here.
The Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to give the Whitaker Lecture at the Bank of Ireland, in Dublin at 10:00 GMT, but given the BoE meeting, he is unlikely to change the tone.
US & Canada
The US core CPI decelerated above expectations to 2.2% y/y dragging the US Dollar lower across the board.
The US core retail sales are set to rise 0.5% m/m in August while the control group included in the GDP report is seen rising 0.4% m/m. For more detail read Valeria’s Preview here and learn how to trade it with EUR/USD here.

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