Listen to the latest market mood for the EURUSD pair.

 

Strong EUR, Weak USD

The COT report shows that Euro net long positioning is reaching high levels last seen in May 2018. In Europe, the COVID-19 case loads are contained and well managed and activity gauges are picking up.

By contrast in the US, the number of COVID-19 cases is rising and 25% of all global cases are now from the US. The response to containing the virus has been mixed and this could open up a divergence in the outlook for Europe and the US. The US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday that the US, ‘has way too much virus’ to control the pandemic.

Therefore, expect EURUSD buyers on pullbacks medium term.

Swing trade outlook – We expect this trade to play out over the next 4 weeks. However, the trade will remain valid for as long as its underlying factors remain valid.

 

Trade Risks

  • Any indication that US cases are falling sharply will invalidate this outlook.
  • If we see a swift rise in European COVID-19 cases that will also invalidate this outlook
  • Any strong risk-off tones that result in USD buying will invalidate this outlook.

 


 

Learn more about HYCM

 

High Risk Investment Warning: Contracts for Difference (‘CFDs’) are complex financial products that are traded on margin. Trading CFDs carries a high degree of risk. It is possible to lose all your capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved. Seek independent expert advice if necessary and speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Please think carefully whether such trading suits you, taking into consideration all the relevant circumstances as well as your personal resources. We do not recommend clients posting their entire account balance to meet margin requirements. Clients can minimise their level of exposure by requesting a change in leverage limit. For more information please refer to HYCM’s Risk Disclosure.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Bears trying to sneak in below 0.6950 but bulls give a healthy fight

AUD/USD kick-starts the week with a gap-down, seesaws around 0.6930 afterward. A surge in the virus cases, hospitalizations in the US, escalating Sino-American tension question market sentiment. 

AUD/USD News

USD/JPY slightly offered in the open, eyes on coronavirus headlines

The yen has picked up a start of the week bid across the board, moving up against the US dollar by 5 pips to a low of 107.42 from high of 107.47, falling further away from the end of week 107.50s. 

USD/JPY News

Gold: Buyers can ignore soft weekly open below $1,775

Gold prices offered a downside gap near $1,774 to kick-start with the week on a back foot. Pandemic fears, geopolitical tensions keep safe-haven buyers strong amid global policymakers’ fight against economic suppression.

Gold News

WTI bulls step up to the plate despite covid-19 risks

WTI is making tracks to the upside at the start of the week, rising some .4%. Last week's closing session had US futures in WTI fell back towards $40, with the August contract closing at $40.32, while Brent Sep closed at $42.80. 

Oil News

Macro considerations in the week ahead

The risk assets had been rallying since mid-March in anticipation of an economic recovery and fueled by the massive liquidity provided by central banks and the spending plans of governments. 

Read more

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures