Looking Like a Tory Blowout and Complete Collapse of Labour
I crunched the latest poll numbers region by region. It points to a blowout.
Electoral Calculus has a nice MP projection calculator in which you can plug in estimates.
I used their advanced calculator, using regional numbers from table 38 on page 42 of the most recent ComRes Poll.
Starting Point Values
Electoral Calculus made the projections based off the numbers that I entered which in turn were from ComRes.
UKIP was my rounding bucket. I suggest Electoral Calculus should change the UKIP bucket to "Other".
Any lines across that did not add up horizontally to 100, I tossed into UKIP except for the first line. If I rounded the first line up, putting 5% in UKIP, I got a majority of 92.
Admittedly this is just one poll. But it pretty much looks like all the rest.
I used ComRes because it provided the necessary regional breakouts.
Electoral Calculus Own Current Projection
Martin Baxter at Electoral Calculus comes up with a majority of 72 based on polls polls from November 12 through November 19.
I came up with 88 using ComRes alone.
Polls November 12 Through November 19
A weighted sample is likely more accurate than the single latest poll. But please note that BMG is the last single-digit holdout.
Leads by Pollster - Most Recent Poll
- ComRes: 11
- YouGov 12
- Ipsos/Mori: 16
- ICM: 10
- Kantar: 18
- Survation 14
- DataPoll: 15
- Opinium: 16
- Panelbase: 13
- BMG: 8
Average Since November 11 (14 Polls)
- Tory: 42.43
- Labour: 29.43
- Liberal Democrat: 14.57
The spread of the averages is 13 percentage points (42.43 - 29.43).
Note that the current ComRes spread is only 11 percentage points.
17% of 2017 Labour Voters Considering Backing the Tories
The Telegraph has some interesting stats regarding the ComRes Poll.
The Savanta ComRes’ research found that the Conservative Party is current polling at 42 per cent of the vote, the highest lead the polling company has registered since before the last election.
Of those who cast their ballot for Jeremy Corbyn in 2017, 17 per cent would now think about supporting the Tories.
That is three times the amount of Tory voters who would think about switching allegiances to Labour, with just five per cent saying they'd vote for Mr Corbyn.
The Tories have the most consistent support among their base, with 94 per cent of their voters from 2017 thinking about backing them again this year.
Referendum on Corbyn
Poll after poll suggests the same thing: Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit.
Brexit is fading as an issue, especially among women.
Who Would Make the Best Prime Minister
A whopping 51.9% of men and 42.0% of women believe johnson would make the best Prime Minister!
Also note that Jo Swinson tops Jeremy Corbyn among women and age groups 55-64 and 65-74.
Not even 18-24 year-olds prefer Corbyn. The only demographic in which Corbyn leads is 25-34 year-olds.
Johnson Unite the Tories
Without a Doubt, Boris Johnson United the Tory Party
Election in Three Weeks
No matter how one slices or dices the polls, unless they change dramatically and suddenly, Corbyn is going to lead Labour into the abyss.
Author
Mike “Mish” Shedlock's
Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc
