Dr. Al Larson, PhD
MoneyTide.com
The gold market has made a good rally since the 11/30/2018 Chaos Clinc suggested it was about to rally. This initial rally could be part of a longer term move.
One of the dominant astro cycles in Gold is the Saturn-Node (SO) cycle. This 11.4 year cycle is close to the average solar sunspot cycle, which has been linked to several economic cycles. Gold is used as a hedge against market uncertainty. Stock market uncertainty seems to be one of the reasons for the rising prices in gold.
This chart of the GLD Exchange Traded Fund shows a possible version of the SO cycle. Cycles can turn near any major aspect. The SO cycle looks to be making turns near the 225 and 45 degree cycle aspects. Often these turns are hard to see because of shorter term cycles. This seems to be the case with the current turn.
However, this can be helped by using longer term exponential moving averages. On this chart, the 360 and 720 calendar day EXMAs are turning up, having tracked near a price of 120. These EXMAs are higher than they were two years ago. Also, the 2018 low is higher than the end of 2016 low. This is evidence that a longer term cycle is turning up.
Cycles tend to have equal time moves. An up SO cycle could run into the end of 2023. A retest of the 2011 high would bring prices back up to 180. Depending on world events during the next 5 years, they could go much higher.
For investors holding GLD, the guide line should be to stay long as much as possible. while using prudent stop loss methods. A strategy of buying the dips may also work.
This content was published on Dr. Al Larson's Chaos Clinic which you can attend each Friday for free.
Dr. Al Larson has developed a complete Chaos Model of Markets, four unique courses that let you become a Certified Chaos Trader, some very unique eMylar fractal pattern overlays, and tools that permit forecasting individual stocks and markets years in advance. You can also sign up for a free weekly email, and attend a free Chaos Clinic on Fridays. To learn more, click on the author's profile.
Be sure to sign up for the free weekly email!
Information on this page contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD fluctuates near 1.0700 after US data
EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.0700 in the American session on Wednesday. The data from the US showed a strong increase in Durable Goods Orders, supporting the USD and making it difficult for the pair to gain traction.
USD/JPY refreshes 34-year high, attacks 155.00 as intervention risks loom
USD/JPY is renewing a multi-decade high, closing in on 155.00. Traders turn cautious on heightened risks of Japan's FX intervention. Broad US Dollar rebound aids the upside in the major. US Durable Goods data are next on tap.
Gold stays in consolidation above $2,300
Gold finds it difficult to stage a rebound midweek following Monday's sharp decline but manages to hold above $2,300. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the green above 4.6% after US data, not allowing the pair to turn north.
Worldcoin looks set for comeback despite Nvidia’s 22% crash Premium
Worldcoin price is in a better position than last week's and shows signs of a potential comeback. This development occurs amid the sharp decline in the valuation of the popular GPU manufacturer Nvidia.
Three fundamentals for the week: US GDP, BoJ and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge stand out Premium
While it is hard to predict when geopolitical news erupts, the level of tension is lower – allowing for key data to have its say. This week's US figures are set to shape the Federal Reserve's decision next week – and the Bank of Japan may struggle to halt the Yen's deterioration.