Swissquote Bank Research Team
Swissquote Bank Ltd
Following mid-2018 talk between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker that avoided duties on EU car imports to the US, the story now resumes. Last week’s Security Conference in Munich showed that EU–US relations are eroding over the Iran deal, US disengagement in Syria and, again, auto tariffs.
The worst-case – imposition of tariffs – would hurt the euro. Trump has a 90-day period to act, allowing time to avert the worst. Maybe the EU can go the way of Canada and Mexico, which are among the top 5 car exporters to the US and benefit from the USMCA agreement that confers duty-free on 2.6 million cars per year for each member. Currently trading at 1.1309, EUR/USD is heading along 1.1325 short-term, as US market remain closed due to President’s Day and liquidity will remain low.
Stay on top of the markets with Swissquote’s News & Analysis
Trump is considering EU car tariffs along 20-25%. This would hit EU GDP growth and the single currency, because auto-related trade accounts for 10% of US–EU transactions. Germany has the most at stake; the EU economy as a whole remains highly exposed. Targeted industries would be automotive, steel and aluminium, also chemicals and textiles. The outcome for the US would be higher average vehicle prices of USD 2’750 and a threat to 367’000 US jobs in auto and related industries.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.