Lights out retail sales print highlights strong Q3 GDP

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

Retail sales shot up 1.9% in September handily exceeding expectations as consumers continue to adjust to living with the virus. Restaurant receipts rose another 2.1%, but are still 15% below their pre-pandemic peak.

Strong Print, Restaurants Getting Closer to Peak

Retail sales rose more than double the consensus expectation with gains across the board. In fact, the only category to post a decline was electronics stores where some payback was inevitable after strong demand in prior months.

Restaurants and bars were crushed during the shutdowns, but after five straight monthly gains, the category is now off only 15% from its peak. Tough months ahead though with cooler weather.

Everybody Wants their Own Wheels All of the Sudden

In descending order, the biggest contributions to September's retail sales report were: autos, clothing and restaurants. This is hardly emblematic of the sort of spending trends you'd expect of a cash-strapped, budget conscious consumer, a theme against which we have been pushing back.

The 3.6% increase in autos is the fourth gain in five months and comes amid increased demand for used autos as well.

Download The Full Economic Indicators

Author

Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.