Life expectancy in CEE rises, yet healthy life years remain below average

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Moody’s completed a periodic review of rating in Poland. The publication does not announce a credit rating, however.
Producer prices in Slovenia grew 0.5% y/y in February, while average monthly wage increased 4.8% y/y in January.
Today, Poland will release retail sales growth for February at 10 AM CET.
There are no other publications scheduled.

Economic developments

Today, we look at the longevity in the region. In 2023, life expectancy at birth in the EU was 81.4 years, marking an increase of 0.8 years from 2022. After having declined in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy has reached higher values than in 2019. In the CEE region we see quite a similar development. Life expectancy at birth in CEE8 was at 78.3 years in 2023, increasing after a significant pandemic drop. The life expectancy in Czechia is the highest within the region (79.9) while the lowest is in Serbia, Romania and Hungary (slightly above 76 years). What is more important for the labor market outcomes, however, is the expected number of years in health. And this indicator (Healthy Life Years (HLY) at Birth) is much lower in the region. All CEE countries have expected number of healthy years close to 60 that is below the EU average. In our view, improving health outcomes could enhance longer labor market participation.

Market developments

Volatility on the FX market has been rather low over the week. The weakening of the CEE currencies against the euro was rather marginal. CEE bond markets have benefited from a drop in yields on the global market. This week, Czechia’s and Hungary’s central banks meeting are key events in the region. We expect stability rates in both countries. Moody’s completed a periodic review of rating in Poland. The publication does not announce a credit rating, however. The report stresses dynamic economy, improved relations with the European Union which has unlocked sizable investment funds, and a strong albeit deteriorating government balance sheet.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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